October 19, 2026
With just over two months left in the year, one may already conclude that 2026 has not been a good year for the West. On February 24, 2027, Europe’s long war in Ukraine will enter its sixth year. Moreover, the war in Iran has created additional political/economic problems for Europe. Transatlantic relations are more strained than ever. President Trump’s unpredictability across the spectrum constitutes a problem for Europe and the world. The absence of leaders who inspire confidence in their people and the world has become a major problem for the West.
Germany is Europe’s largest economy and the world’s third-largest. Yet full-year real GDP growth for 2026 is projected at 0.5% to 1.3%. The IMF expects French real GDP to grow by only 0.4% this year and 0.7% in 2027. Thus, October 17 will remain in the French people’s minds as a Black Day. Trump links those European challenges to migration. Perhaps he needs to be reminded that many of those migrants are coming from the West’s former colonies, countries that the West dominated for decades for economic exploitation.
Despite a looming trade conflict between China and the EU, Beijing must be watching the West’s disarray with satisfaction. And despite all the talk of peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv, President Putin appears likely to raise his conditions even further for any so-called peace with Kyiv.
In this broader context, two critical elections stand out: Israel’s October 27 election and the US election on November 3.
Since October 7, 2023, Israel and the Middle East have undergone a major political and strategic transformation. The Hamas attack and the wars in Iran and Lebanon that followed have reshaped Israeli perceptions of security and the country’s place in the wider Middle East, while further reinforcing Israeli opposition to Palestinian statehood. Yet, during the past decade, relations between Arab countries and Israel improved despite the latter’s burial of the so-called “two-state solution”.
In Israel, Yitzhak Rabin’s Labor Party lost the 1977 elections to a conservative coalition, the Likud.
The Likud’s election manifesto had made clear that the “right of the Jewish people to the Land of Israel is eternal, and is an integral part of its right to security and peace. Judea and Samaria the West Bank) shall therefore not be relinquished to foreign rule; between the sea and the Jordan, there will be no there will be Jewish sovereignty alone.[i]
While the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack was a shock to Israelis, prompting accusations of negligence at Netanyahu, the country has never been closer to fulfilling the Likud’s promise of the 1977election. And the Israelis may again see him as the leader to bring this to a conclusion. Moreover, Trump has endorsed Netanyahu’s bid for reelection, saying any other candidate would be the “wrong” leader and leave the US to fight Iran alone. “BIBI NETANYAHU WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Regarding settler violence in the West Bank, “We’re very disturbed by those images and what we’re seeing,” Secretary Rubio said. “We’ve asked the Israelis and continue to ask them to crack down on that stuff.” “The EU strongly condemns the latest attacks by violent settlers in the West Bank, including on European diplomats,” said the EU’s Spokesperson. However, this is only diplomatic theatre, and the US and the EU are united in their tolerance for Israel on this “stuff”. Thus, PM Netanyahu still has a good chance of staying in power.
On November 3, 2026, US voters will vote for all members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats. The election will also mark the final vote of confidence for Trump. With broad dissatisfaction over the war with Iran, rising gas prices, Trump’s and his top team’s controversial governing style, with Secretary of War Hegseth topping the list, and Trump’s endless twists and turns, some predict a win for the Democratic Party. Yet whether the Democrats have put the wreckage of the Biden presidency behind them remains in question. After all, voters tend to identify parties with their leaders, and the Democrats still have no one in sight. Trump’s top team members remain united in their support for him and his policies. Yet, in just a little over a year, Americans will likely see some change in their absolute devotion to their leader.
As for Türkiye under authoritarian rule, with inflation galloping at roughly 30% according to official figures, there is no room for optimism. We are now irreversibly part of the Middle East, yet our relations with regional countries are at an all-time low and lack mutual confidence. Our relations with Washington remain “a riddle wrapped in an enigma”. Even our relations with Azerbaijan, once defined as “one nation, two states,” are becoming problematic. However, our biggest foreign and security policy challenge might lie in the future of our relations with the EU. It has long been clear that Türkiye will never join the EU. However, the EU’s continued disregard for Turkish economic interests under the Customs Union may trigger a deeper crisis, forcing Ankara to reassess the fundamentals of its foreign and security policy.
[i] Odd Arne Westad, The Cold War, A World History, Penguin Random House UK, 2017, page 468.
