October 31, 2026
On October 4, 2026, Brazil’s left-wing President Lula da Silva won a fourth term in a remarkable comeback against his right-wing challenger, Flávio Bolsonaro. In an extremely tight race, Lula took 51.79% of the vote, becoming the first president since Brazil’s return to civilian rule in 1985 to be elected after losing the first round. Bolsonaro, who faces multiple criminal investigations, flew to Florida on temporary status granted, reportedly after orders from President Trump, and will be granted permanent residency later, according to US officials. Trump has said that leftist incumbent Lula da Silva’s surprise win in Brazil’s presidential vote “looked like another rigged election.”
What happened before 1985 is another story. João Goulart was elected Brazil’s 24th president in 1961 and remained in office until a military coup deposed him three years later. He was considered Brazil’s last left-wing president until Lula da Silva took office in 2003.
Goulart was from a very wealthy landowning family in the south; he wanted reform, not revolution, and he kept the Communist Party under strict political control. However, his program, which included land reform and the nationalization of utility companies, met increasing resistance from the Right. In March 1964, massive anti-Goulart demonstrations were organized by members of the Catholic clergy.
The Johnson administration encouraged and supported a military coup against Goulart that month, as demonstrations and counterdemonstrations came to a head in cities all over Brazil. “I think we ought to take every step that we can, be prepared to do everything that we need to do” in order to support the coup-makers, President Johnson ordered. “We just can’t take this one.” The fearmongering against Goulart that the United States had supported for several months helped ensure the rapid success of the coup. The downturn in the economy over the last 18 months of his presidency also helped the military leaders depose him. The military dictatorship that inaugurated itself in 1964 was the last for twenty years in which Brazil’s most basic problems were shunned and the internal Cold War was stepped up.[i]
After 20 years of military dictatorship, Brazil held its first presidential elections on 15 November 1984, with the second round on 2 December.
Four decades later, on January 1, 2024, Lula da Silva was duly inaugurated as president. A week later, thousands of Bolsonaro’s supporters stormed the headquarters of the three branches of government—the presidential palace, National Congress Palace, and seat of the Supreme Court— breaking windows, damaging property, and destroying valuable national treasures. The attempted coup d’état was subdued by the new government, which arrested thousands of insurrectionists and restored order to the streets. Subsequent investigations have revealed that sectors of the armed forces were poised to seize power but in large part were halted by international articulations, civil society organizations, and government officials, especially those coming from the Biden White House and the US Congress, warning the military that it would become a global pariah should it overthrow the democratically elected president.[ii]
With the Trump administration, a lot has changed. The President disapproves of Brazil’s election results. President Maduro of Venezuela was captured in a military operation and is standing trial in the US. Trump has struck with the interim President Rodriguez “the biggest oil deal in history”. Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who recently returned from exile, has called the country’s transition to democracy “irreversible” despite uncertainties. Moreover, Cuba under the US fuel embargo also remains another target for Secretary Rubio. On Wednesday, the UN General Assembly again called for an end to the US embargo on Cuba, but support for the resolution fell to its lowest level in more than 30 years. Last year, more than 160 countries backed the proposal. Germany, Italy and Latvia abstained for the first time in 34 years.[iii]
Interestingly, in March 2024, the relatives of the victims of Brazil’s brutal two-decade dictatorship voiced anger and dismay over President Lula’s reported decision to block official remembrance events marking the 60th anniversary of the 1964 military coup d’état. Lula reportedly canceled those plans by giving explicit orders against such commemorations. The decision seemed intended to avoid angering military chiefs at a time when several senior military figures faced jail terms for allegedly conspiring to stop Lula from taking power after his 2022 election.[iv]
Brazil, with a population of over 213 million people, is South America’s most populous country. Hopefully, it will overcome its current political polarization and set an example for other countries facing the same problem.
On September 9, the Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, who has ruled Serbia for fourteen years, called for snap elections after dissolving the country’s parliament. Vučić acknowledged “turbulence” in Serbian society but blamed “significant interference by foreign powers” for inspiring student-led anti-corruption protests that have fueled the country’s political turmoil over the past two years. “I am convinced that the citizens of Serbia will choose the right path into the future,” he said. And with an impressive victory in Serbia’s October 25 parliamentary elections, they did exactly that.
Only five years ago, on September 30, 2021, this was what President of the European Commission von der Leyen had said on the occasion of her official visit to Serbia:
“Let me stress that I am a strong advocate for bringing Serbia into the European Union. And in that context, I welcome that Serbia places a strong focus on fundamental reforms. I commend you for the steps you have taken. This is enormous. You have done a lot of hard work. This hard work pays off. It is amazing to see the progress. And we support Serbia’s ambition to open as soon as possible new accession clusters. We know that the decision is in the hands of the Member States.”[v]
No other party, apart from Aleksandar Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) with 39.3 %, and the Student List with 52.5% of the vote, cleared the 3% threshold required to enter parliament. This decisive victory gave the latter 141 of the 250 seats in the National Assembly.
In a commentary titled “How Did Serbia Remove Vučić Without a Single Smashed Window? Carnegie Politika’s Alexander Baunov said, “Serbia’s electoral earthquake is an extremely rare example of an entire political system being defeated by street protesters who played by the rules.”[vi]
The Student List emerged from two years of protests since the Novi Sad train station tragedy in November 2024. Coordinated from universities, the movement demanded justice, accountability, and transparency. The students deliberately avoided aligning with parties or taking positions on sensitive issues to build the broadest possible support.
The winners of the election have emphasized that they are determined to uphold their predecessors’ Russia-friendly policies. Moscow has said that it also hopes to continue “constructive relations” with Serbia’s new leadership.
The Student List’s election victory is likely to energize Serbia’s quest for EU membership. Hopefully, it will also mark the end of the Balkans’ years of conflict.
On October 27, 2026, Israel held the last parliamentary election of the month. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s party and its allies won 53 seats in Parliament, falling short of the outright majority needed to form a government. The main opposition bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot, won 48. Two Arab parties secured 19 seats, their highest-ever total. Thus, days of political uncertainty will likely continue in the coming days, perhaps weeks.
In a post a month ago, I had said, “Thus, a month later, the world will see how the people of Israel assess Netanyahu’s last four years as their prime minister, and whether and how they would weigh his alleged failure to prevent the October 7 attack against their growing friendship with Arab countries.”
The election results show that Israelis also remain divided at this critical time in their country’s history. Some say that Netanyahu lost dramatically. I tend to agree with those who say, “Results show that Netanyahu is far from defeated.”
Global attention is now focused on next Tuesday’s US midterm elections, and the world is anxiously awaiting their impact on the war with Iran.
[i] Odd Arne Westad, The Cold War, A World History, Penguin Random House UK, 2017, p. 351-352.
[ii]https://www.americanacademy.de/berlin-journal/a-tale-of-two-coups/
[iii] https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/28/support-for-un-vote-to-end-us-embargo-on-cuba-falls-to-30-year-low
[iv] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/29/lula-brazil-coup-anniversary-dictatorship?CMP=share_btn_url
[v] https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/statement-president-von-der-leyen-occasion-her-official-visit-serbia-2021-09-30_en
[vi] https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/10/serbia-election-results-meaning?
