Russia-Türkiye Relations

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August 24, 2026

On August 15, 2026, Russia’s Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was asked about plans by the US and Türkiye to supply arms to Kyiv.

Referring to a “quite a considerable arsenal”, she said, “… these are countries which have been aspiring to play a special role in settling the Ukraine crisis and which have been saying that finding a political and diplomatic solution was their priority…” She also said that such a supply of arms would deal a severe blow to Russia’s bilateral relations with Washington and Ankara, adding that Moscow has asked both capitals for information on the matter.[i]

So far, neither capital has given a public response.

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Learning Again to Live With Wars

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August 17, 2026

Since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I, the Middle East has been traumatized by Western interventions, wars, power competition, and peace treaties among regional adversaries that have failed to embrace the broader region. In brief, its past century has been one of conflict.

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Türkiye at an Inflection Point

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August 8, 2026

The victors of the First World War were determined to partition the Ottoman Empire and confine it to central Anatolia. On August 10, 1920, the “Sultan” signed the Treaty of Sèvres, the death sentence of the “Sick Man of Europe.”

When he landed in the Black Sea city of Samsun on May 19, 1919, to launch Türkiye’s War of Independence, Atatürk committed to fighting not only external powers but also internal adversaries who opposed change. Nonetheless, against a multitude of incredible difficulties, the commander who had led Turkish troops to victory in Gallipoli also led the War of Independence to a successful conclusion. With the Treaty of Lausanne signed on July 24, 1923, the Treaty of Sèvres was thrown into the dustbin of history. On October 29, 1923, the Turkish Republic was declared.

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Enough of the Bombast

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July 29, 2026

During the last two weeks, US forces kept striking targets in Iran. On July 20, the Houthis announced a complete maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia.  President Trump threatened a “major military punishment” for Iran and its Houthi allies. Iran rejected a US ceasefire offer delivered in Tehran by the President of Iraq, who had recently visited the White House. Oil prices topped 100 dollars a barrel.

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The Second-best Option: “No War, No Peace”

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July 20, 2026

The world remains occupied with the wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine, and their global repercussions.

With the sharp military escalation between Iran and the US and President Trump’s threats and conflicting remarks, it was another chaotic week in the Middle East. Before the war, tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz carried around a fifth of the world’s oil consumption. Today, countries are looking at alternative routes and considering building new pipelines. On top of Iran’s nuclear program, passage through the Strait has become a major issue.

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The Trump Summit

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July 9, 2026

NATO’s Ankara Summit was probably the most extravagant in the Alliance’s history. A day before the Summit, in a social media message, the Turkish Presidency’s Head of Communications, Duran, said, “At the invitation of our President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President Donald Trump of the United States of America will pay an official visit to our country on 7 July 2026.”

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The NATO Summit

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July 6, 2026

Starting tomorrow, Ankara will host a two-day NATO Summit. Looking broadly at Türkiye’s relations with its allies, the problems are the country’s steep democratic decline and the AKP government’s Islamist agenda, including its relations with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. Nevertheless, for the West, these are no longer an issue but a “given” that can be ignored in a strictly transactional relationship.

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From NATO’s 2004 Istanbul Summit to the Present

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June 30, 2026

NATO’s 19th Summit was held in Istanbul, Türkiye, on June 28–29, 2004. Twenty-two years later, the 36th NATO Summit will be held on July 7–8, 2026, in Ankara. Even a brief look at the 19th Summit Communiqué and the one to be published next Wednesday will unmistakably demonstrate how much has changed since then in Europe, transatlantic relations, the Middle East, and Türkiye.

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The Iran-US MoU and the G7 Summit

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June 2, 2026

The Iran-US “Memorandum of Understanding” (MoU) was signed last Thursday by Presidents Trump and Pezeshkian in Paris and Tehran, respectively. Thus, the 60-day negotiation period started. The preceding days saw endless speculation about its contents. US Vice President Vance said the MoU is “a very general document,” with specifics to be worked out in further negotiations. Although not disclosed, the MoU may have understandings that go beyond those 14 paragraphs.

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Europe and Russia  Have to Resume Dialogue

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June 15, 2026

Since the beginning of the year, there have been references to the resumption of dialogue between Europe and Russia. European Council President Costa said ⁠he believed there was “potential” for the EU to discuss the future of Europe’s security architecture with Russia. President Macron said there is a need to structure the renewal of Europe’s dialogue with Russia so it does not depend on third parties. President Putin also said Russia would be willing to negotiate new security arrangements for Europe, and that his preferred negotiating partner would be Germany’s former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. So far, however, there are no concrete steps in that direction.

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