The China-US Summit

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May 18, 2026

On April 10, 1971, the US table tennis team arrived in China. Later that year, in July 1971, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger made a secret trip to China, paving the way for President Nixon’s visit. On February 27, 1972, the US President and his Chinese hosts agreed to the joint “Shanghai Communique,” in which both nations pledged to work toward the full normalization of diplomatic relations. As part of this effort, on May 1, 1973, the US opened a liaison office in Beijing to handle all matters in the US-China relationship “except the strictly formal diplomatic aspects of the relationship.” China created a counterpart office in Washington the same year. Finally, on January 1, 1979, the US recognized the People’s Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China and established diplomatic relations with it.

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Waiting for Washington’s Response to Tehran

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May 11, 2026

In his election night victory speech on November 6, 2024, President-elect Donald Trump said, “I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.” Yet, he twice joined Prime Minister Netanyahu’s war against Iran. And, in his Address to the Nation, on April 1, 2026, one month after the Israeli-US attack on Iran, he said:

“Never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and devastating large-scale losses in a matter of weeks. Our enemies are losing and America, as it has been for five years under my presidency, is winning, and now winning bigger than ever before.”[i]

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Europe’s Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

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April 30, 2026

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. The West condemned the invasion and began to support Ukraine. Four months later, at their summit in Madrid on June 29, NATO allies adopted the “NATO 2022 Strategic Concept.”[i]

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A War of Nerves

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April 27, 2026

Merriam-Webster defines the title of this post as “a conflict characterized by psychological tactics (such as bluff, threats, and intimidation) designed primarily to create confusion, indecision, or breakdown of morale”. The targeting and seizures of ships by both Iran and the US in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US naval operations against Iran expanded to the Indian Ocean, the arrival in the region of the third US aircraft carrier can be considered acts of intimidation. Doing his part, Israel’s  Minister Katz has said that Israel is “prepared to resume the war against Iran”, adding that his country is awaiting a green light from the US to return Iran to “the Stone Age”.

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Time for Tough Choices

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April 20, 2026

The Iran-US ceasefire expires on Wednesday. Yet, there is still some uncertainty regarding the second round of the “peace negotiations” in Islamabad. The past ten days have seen intense diplomatic activity, Trump’s flurry of comments and threats, Iran’s defiant statements and vows of retaliation, the IMF’s warning that disruptions to oil markets could slow global growth, and further strains in transatlantic relations. Moreover, it now appears that, for Washington and Tehran, the “marketing of a deal” has also become an important issue, with both sides fighting to win the edge. Thus, the Middle East’s fortune-tellers are at a loss.

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The “Pause”

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April 13, 2026

Last Tuesday, Washington and Tehran agreed, through Pakistan’s mediation, to stop fighting for two weeks. The term used to define the “agreement” was “ceasefire,” often accompanied by the adjective “temporary.” Another word that goes a step beyond “ceasefire” is “armistice,” which refers to a formal agreement between two countries at war to stop fighting for a specific time to negotiate peace. Definitely, the parties in this Middle East war are far from that point.

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The West in a Leadership Crisis

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March 30, 2026

Last Saturday, the war in Iran entered its second month. During the past four weeks, the only European leader to object to the attacks on Iran was Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. He issued a clear and firm refusal on March 6, saying, “No to war,” and denying the US permission to use joint Spanish-American military bases against Iran. In the following days, he warned that the Iran war represents a “far worse” scenario than the 2003 invasion of Iraq. He said Israel “seeks to inflict the same level of damage and destruction” on Lebanon as on the Gaza Strip.

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Iran War, A New Strain on Transatlantic Relations

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March 23, 2026

With Trump’s second term in the White House, transatlantic relations entered challenging times. First came his largely understandable criticism of the European contribution to common defense, to which Europeans responded by committing to raising defense spending from 2% to 5% of their GDP. Second, came his tariff wars. On July 28, 2025, the White House announced a trade deal with the EU, reached during a meeting between Commission President von der Leyen and Trump, “fundamentally rebalancing the economic relationship between the world’s two largest economies”. The deal drew some criticism from within the EU. Third, Washington ignored the European countries’ views on the war in Ukraine. Trump did not allow them a seat at the negotiating table but lectured them in the Oval Office following his Alaska Summit with Putin. His remarks on the EU remained mostly condescending.

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Anniversary of the Invasion of Iraq and the Attack on Libya

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March 20, 2026

Today marks a somber double anniversary in Middle Eastern history: 23 years since the 2003 invasion of Iraq and 15 years since the UK, US, and French intervention against Muammar Gaddafi’s forces in Libya. Years later, the region is not the beacon of stability once promised; instead, it is engulfed in an even more expansive and destructive conflict. As German Foreign Minister Wadephul remarked two days ago, “One thing is clear: We are living through an exceptional moment in history.”[i]

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