Towards Chaos

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September 14, 2026

The war in Ukraine—Europe’s longest and deadliest conflict since World War II—continues to escalate. Many observers agree that this will be a tough winter for Ukrainians.

Earlier this year, the EU finalized a $100 billion loan for Ukraine. However, in late August, President Zelensky told European allies that Ukraine now faces an unexpectedly large defense budget shortfall and needs an additional $27 billion to get through the year. Zelensky’s request for additional funds is the latest signal that the war’s cost to Europe will continue to rise.

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Gazans to “Voluntarily Emigrate”

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September 7, 2026

This is how I had concluded a post more than a year ago:

“Against the latest flurry of diplomacy, Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing government remains determined that all Palestinians be expelled from Gaza, a project endorsed by President Trump. Both know that after 661 days of bloodshed, the war in Gaza has swept away any hope whatsoever of peaceful co-existence between the two peoples. The only question is “where would they go?” Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Trump must have some ideas. After all, in today’s world, there is little that money can’t buy. However, that would not be all.

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Europe’s Long War

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August 31, 2026

On August 24, Ukraine celebrated the 35th anniversary of its independence.

The leaders of the Coalition of the Willing convened in Kyiv and via video conference to commemorate the occasion. In a co-chair’s statement, they noted that they were united in their continued support of Ukraine’s fight to defend its sovereignty, freedom, and territorial integrity.[i]

Marking the occasion, the European Commission also issued a statement of solidarity with Ukraine, which rightly underlined the bravery, resistance, and resilience of the Ukrainian people in the face of Russia’s war of aggression. It said that Ukraine belongs in the European family and the European Union and reaffirmed the unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.[ii]

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Russia-Türkiye Relations

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August 24, 2026

On August 15, 2026, Russia’s Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was asked about plans by the US and Türkiye to supply arms to Kyiv.

Referring to a “quite a considerable arsenal”, she said, “… these are countries which have been aspiring to play a special role in settling the Ukraine crisis and which have been saying that finding a political and diplomatic solution was their priority…” She also said that such a supply of arms would deal a severe blow to Russia’s bilateral relations with Washington and Ankara, adding that Moscow has asked both capitals for information on the matter.[i]

So far, neither capital has given a public response.

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Learning Again to Live With Wars

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August 17, 2026

Since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I, the Middle East has been traumatized by Western interventions, wars, power competition, and peace treaties among regional adversaries that have failed to embrace the broader region. In brief, its past century has been one of conflict.

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Türkiye at an Inflection Point

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August 8, 2026

The victors of the First World War were determined to partition the Ottoman Empire and confine it to central Anatolia. On August 10, 1920, the “Sultan” signed the Treaty of Sèvres, the death sentence of the “Sick Man of Europe.”

When he landed in the Black Sea city of Samsun on May 19, 1919, to launch Türkiye’s War of Independence, Atatürk committed to fighting not only external powers but also internal adversaries who opposed change. Nonetheless, against a multitude of incredible difficulties, the commander who had led Turkish troops to victory in Gallipoli also led the War of Independence to a successful conclusion. With the Treaty of Lausanne signed on July 24, 1923, the Treaty of Sèvres was thrown into the dustbin of history. On October 29, 1923, the Turkish Republic was declared.

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Enough of the Bombast

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July 29, 2026

During the last two weeks, US forces kept striking targets in Iran. On July 20, the Houthis announced a complete maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia.  President Trump threatened a “major military punishment” for Iran and its Houthi allies. Iran rejected a US ceasefire offer delivered in Tehran by the President of Iraq, who had recently visited the White House. Oil prices topped 100 dollars a barrel.

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The Second-best Option: “No War, No Peace”

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July 20, 2026

The world remains occupied with the wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine, and their global repercussions.

With the sharp military escalation between Iran and the US and President Trump’s threats and conflicting remarks, it was another chaotic week in the Middle East. Before the war, tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz carried around a fifth of the world’s oil consumption. Today, countries are looking at alternative routes and considering building new pipelines. On top of Iran’s nuclear program, passage through the Strait has become a major issue.

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The Trump Summit

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July 9, 2026

NATO’s Ankara Summit was probably the most extravagant in the Alliance’s history. A day before the Summit, in a social media message, the Turkish Presidency’s Head of Communications, Duran, said, “At the invitation of our President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President Donald Trump of the United States of America will pay an official visit to our country on 7 July 2026.”

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The NATO Summit

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July 6, 2026

Starting tomorrow, Ankara will host a two-day NATO Summit. Looking broadly at Türkiye’s relations with its allies, the problems are the country’s steep democratic decline and the AKP government’s Islamist agenda, including its relations with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. Nevertheless, for the West, these are no longer an issue but a “given” that can be ignored in a strictly transactional relationship.

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