May 18, 2026

On April 10, 1971, the US table tennis team arrived in China. Later that year, in July 1971, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger made a secret trip to China, paving the way for President Nixon’s visit. On February 27, 1972, the US President and his Chinese hosts agreed to the joint “Shanghai Communique,” in which both nations pledged to work toward the full normalization of diplomatic relations. As part of this effort, on May 1, 1973, the US opened a liaison office in Beijing to handle all matters in the US-China relationship “except the strictly formal diplomatic aspects of the relationship.” China created a counterpart office in Washington the same year. Finally, on January 1, 1979, the US recognized the People’s Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China and established diplomatic relations with it.

Under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, China put the excesses of the Mao era behind. His years in power were characterized by economic reform, higher living standards, and growing ties to the world economy. Thus, China contributed to globalization, benefited from it, and emerged as a world power.

Remarkably, in the world’s fourth-largest country and most populous nation, until recently, all of this happened within five decades. When Japan was finally defeated in 1945, China was devastated, having suffered some 15 million deaths.

Over the past decades, as the US fought its longest war in Afghanistan, tried to deal with the negative consequences of the invasion of Iraq, and the Arab Spring interventions, China focused on its economic development. It built economic bridgeheads around the world. Today, China is the world’s largest trading nation. It is the EU’s largest trading partner. Nearly two-thirds of all countries trade more with China than with the US. Moreover, China has avoided involvement in international disputes and external interventions. US officials have repeatedly cited its aggressive policies, but Peking has not allowed regional questions to turn into crises. It has not resorted to force. China advocates multilateralism.

Today, China says that it has Chinese-style democracy; that the people’s democracy practiced in China is based on the country’s reality, history, and culture, and reflects the people’s will. In other words, China remains an authoritarian state.

China’s foreign policy public discourse has remained consistent over the years. Regarding the West’s once-advocated rules-based international order, Chinese leaders say that their country stands firmly against all forms of hegemonism and power politics, the Cold War mentality, interference in other countries’ internal affairs, and double standards; they stress that China is committed to safeguarding the international system with the UN at its core and the international order underpinned by international law. And, over the years, their top national issue has remained Taiwan’s future.

President Xi Jinping, delivering a report to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on October 18, 2017, had stated the following on Taiwan:

“We have the resolve, the confidence, and the ability to defeat separatist attempts for “Taiwan independence” in any form. We will never allow anyone, any organization, or any political party, at any time or in any form, to separate any part of Chinese territory from China!”[i]

Five years later, in his address to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, on October 16, 2022, he said:

“Taiwan is China’s Taiwan. Resolving the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese, a matter that must be resolved by the Chinese. We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary. This is directed solely at interference by outside forces and the few separatists seeking “Taiwan independence” and their separatist activities; it is by no means targeted at our Taiwan compatriots.

“The wheels of history are rolling on toward China’s reunification and rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The complete reunification of our country must be realized, and it can, without a doubt, be realized!” [ii]

During his talks with his US counterpart last week, President Xi stressed that the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations. If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy. “Taiwan independence” and cross-Strait peace are as irreconcilable as fire and water. Safeguarding peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is the biggest common denominator between China and the US. The US side must exercise extra caution in handling the Taiwan question.[iii]

On his way back home, Trump said he had not yet determined whether a major sale of arms to Taiwan would go ahead. The Trump administration has authorized the sale, but it has yet to move forward. Speaking to reporters as he flew back on Air Force One, Trump said he has not decided on the sale but would “make a determination over the next fairly short period”. Trump also confirmed that Xi told him he remains opposed to Taiwan’s independence. “I heard him out,” he said, adding, “I didn’t make a comment.”[iv]

Upon his return to Washington, in an interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier, Trump said, “Nothing’s changed. I will say this: I’m not looking to have somebody go independent. And, you know, we’re supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I’m not looking for that. I want them to cool down. I want China to cool down.”

The emphasis he put on the need to “cool down” brings to mind the current state of US-Cuba relations. After all, the distance between Cuba and the US mainland is approximately 150 kilometers. And the distance between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan is 160 kilometers.

On May 11, a day before he left for China,  Trump said he expects to have “the honor of taking Cuba” after a US-imposed oil blockade plunged the country into darkness under a total power blackout.

Secretary of State Rubio, son of Cuban immigrants, has long made it clear he wants regime change in Havana. Trump has also called for a “friendly takeover”, but recently told reporters, “It may not be a friendly takeover.” Since removing Maduro from power in January and joining Israel in attacking Iran, Trump has openly mused that Cuba would be “next”.[v]

Venezuelan fuel stopped flowing to Cuba entirely in January, after the United States seized Venezuela’s leader and took control of Venezuela’s oil industry. The US now plans to indict former ​President Raúl Castro of Cuba, a US Department of ​Justice official said last Thursday.

Both Taiwan and Cuba are strategic island states. Today, Taiwan is the indisputable global powerhouse of the semiconductor industry, producing over 60% of the world’s computer chips and 90% of the market for the most advanced, leading-edge chips. One firm, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), produces more than 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductor chips. These chips are essential for smartphones, artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, and cutting-edge military systems. Interruptions in their supply could have catastrophic consequences for the global economy.[vi]

By contrast, Cuba is not an economic powerhouse.

Yet, the past few weeks have brought both to the forefront, somehow linking the two.

The Trump-Xi summit clearly demonstrated that China and the US are today’s two top world powers. Although their relationship is one of competitive rivalry, the continuation of their dialogue is important. With the war in Iran, Trump needed to shift attention with a constructive and result-oriented visit to China. On the surface, the visit was a positive development not only for China-US relations but also for global stability. It was a signal of the recognition of the need for mutual accommodation. Yet, its concrete results were far from clear.

In Beijing, Trump was extended an ostentatious welcome. Accompanied by a group of top American business executives, he used every opportunity to highlight the positive results of his talks with Xi.

Whether his remarks in Beijing and Washington upon his return, particularly those about Taiwan, reflected a change in US policy or were intended to minimize Chinese opposition to a new wave of Israeli-US attacks against Iran or to some future action against Cuba remains to be seen. The Chinese side was more reserved. Thus, President Putin’s visit to China, starting tomorrow, will be closely watched.

On the last day of the summit, Trump announced that China would purchase 200 Boeing aircraft and was interested in buying more US oil, as the conflict in the Middle East had disrupted global supply. Trump also said he would consider lifting sanctions on Chinese companies that purchase Iranian oil.

Nine years ago, during Trump’s first state visit to China, the US Commerce Department had announced 37 deals totaling more than $250 billion before the US leader had even left Beijing, including a commitment from China to buy 300 Boeing airplanes that was never fulfilled.[vii]

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[i] http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/download/Xi_Jinping’s_report_at_19th_CPC_National_Congress.pdf

[ii] https://www.idcpc.org.cn/english2023/tjzl/cpcjj/20thPartyCongrssReport/

[iii] https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/zyxw/202605/t20260514_11910330.html

[iv] https://apnews.com/article/trump-xi-taiwan-iran-trade-e7a3cdf161c608de152ac1c6e5755452?utm_source=Email&utm_medium=share

[v] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/17/donald-trump-can-take-cuba-oil?CMP=share_btn_url

[vi] https://theconversation.com/how-taiwan-came-to-dominate-the-global-chip-industry-276939

[vii] https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/15/business/stock-market-china-us-deal-trump-xi-business