April 20, 2026

The Iran-US ceasefire expires on Wednesday. Yet, there is still some uncertainty regarding the second round of the “peace negotiations” in Islamabad. The past ten days have seen intense diplomatic activity, Trump’s flurry of comments and threats, Iran’s defiant statements and vows of retaliation, the IMF’s warning that disruptions to oil markets could slow global growth, and further strains in transatlantic relations. Moreover, it now appears that, for Washington and Tehran, the “marketing of a deal” has also become an important issue, with both sides fighting to win the edge. Thus, the Middle East’s fortune-tellers are at a loss.