August 31, 2026

On August 24, Ukraine celebrated the 35th anniversary of its independence.

The leaders of the Coalition of the Willing convened in Kyiv and via video conference to commemorate the occasion. In a co-chair’s statement, they noted that they were united in their continued support of Ukraine’s fight to defend its sovereignty, freedom, and territorial integrity.[i]

Marking the occasion, the European Commission also issued a statement of solidarity with Ukraine, which rightly underlined the bravery, resistance, and resilience of the Ukrainian people in the face of Russia’s war of aggression. It said that Ukraine belongs in the European family and the European Union and reaffirmed the unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.[ii]

In his Ukraine National Day press statement, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “The United States is committed to Ukraine’s sovereignty and continues to work to support a negotiated settlement to the Russia-Ukraine war that establishes a lasting and durable peace.”

Despite earlier reports about a first visit to Kyiv, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were not present for Ukraine’s National Day. More importantly, the phrase “territorial integrity” did not appear in Rubio’s statement.[iii]

Only the former US special envoy for Ukraine, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, stated on a Ukrainian YouTube channel that Washington would not recognize the occupied Ukrainian territories as Russian, adding that Ukraine would reclaim them.[iv]

The lack of reference to Ukraine’s territorial integrity demonstrates, once again, Washington’s admission that when the war ends, Ukraine will lose some territory.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, the EU has provided Ukraine and its people financial and military assistance amounting to €220.2 billion. On Ukraine’s Independence Day, the EU approved €6.1 billion in support for air and missile defense systems, missiles, ammunition, and radar systems. Moreover, the EU has adopted 21 packages of anti-Russia sanctions. Thus, if not NATO, the Coalition of the Willing is effectively at an undeclared war with Russia. Moreover, hybrid threats are now becoming a source of concern among NATO countries.

Despite their emphasis on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, European leaders also know that, when the war ends, Ukraine will lose territory. Perhaps their continuing reaffirmation of support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity reflects some regret that, had they engaged Russia earlier, Ukraine’s history could have been written differently. Understandably, Kyiv will not formally agree to any loss of territory. This is why an end to the war would only be a “no war, no peace” situation.

Unfortunately, however, even such a solution remains out of reach for now. On the contrary, there are signals of escalation.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham, stepping onto the international stage during his first foreign trip to Kyiv for Ukraine’s National Day, sharply criticized Russia and announced the delivery of technical blueprints which will allow Ukraine to assemble long-range missiles—drawing a swift response from Moscow. Only two days prior, President Macron announced that France would deliver new interceptor missiles to Kyiv following a major Russian attack on a shopping center in central Ukraine. Interestingly, however, France is now pushing to ensure more EU-backed funding supports European—and potentially French—defense production, according to Euronews.[v]

In recent months, while Russia continued attacking Kyiv with missiles, Ukraine’s air strikes reached deeper into Russia, targeting its military and energy infrastructure, creating supply problems at gas stations despite Russia being an oil-rich country.

On the one hand, with the war now in its fifth year, President Putin is under growing pressure to end it in a way acceptable to the Russian people. On the other hand, Russians’ frustration with European support for Ukraine and the EU’s anti-Russia sanctions encourage him to continue the war. Thus, the question is whether he will prioritize peace talks or dramatically intensify missile attacks before opening the door to a de facto peace. At present, the latter appears more likely, given the manpower problems of a new major land offensive.

In Ukraine, despite strong European support, President Zelensky also faces growing dissatisfaction with the war and domestic political problems. His options, however, are far more limited than President Putin’s.

CIA Director Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow has led to some speculation. It may be that worries about a major escalation in the war prompted his visit.

Today marks the 1649^th day of the war in Ukraine, with no end in sight. This war is not just a European problem; it is a security challenge for the world. And there are other challenges. In a must-read Chatham House article, Dr. Patrick Schröder says climate change is now Europe’s biggest systemic security risk and calls for a broad European security-based approach to climate change.[vi] And Nepali Foreign Minister Shisir Khanal has rightly called on the world to embark on a “global effort” to tackle climate change.

Will anyone heed their message? No.

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[i] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/co-chairs-statement-of-the-coalition-of-the-willing-24-august-2026

[ii] https://commission.europa.eu/news-and-media/news/eu-reaffirms-solidarity-ukraine-35th-anniversary-regained-independence-2026-08-24_en

[iii] https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/08/ukraine-national-day-2/

[iv] https://unn.ua/en/news/the-us-will-not-recognize-the-occupied-ukrainian-territories-as-russian-kellogg

[v] https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/08/25/exclusive-france-wants-to-limit-ukraines-non-european-procurement-with-eu-money

[vi] https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/08/wildfires-and-extreme-heat-show-climate-change-now-europes-biggest-security-threat