Etiket arşivi: Turkish foreign policy

Türkiye’s Overlooked Gift to Israel

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July 8, 2024

President Bashar al-Assad met with Alexander Lavrentiev, President Putin’s special envoy in late June. During their discussion, President al-Assad reportedly expressed Syria’s openness to all initiatives aimed at improving Syrian-Turkish relations, provided Ankara respects Syria’s sovereignty and commits to combating all forms of terrorism and terrorist organizations. In the following days, President Erdoğan said that Türkiye has no interest in interfering in Syria’s domestic affairs and that the two countries could act in unity as in the past. Yesterday, he also said an invitation could soon be extended to President Assad to visit Türkiye. These statements and the acts of violence between Syrian refugees and the locals in some Turkish cities once again moved the question of “reconciliation with Syria” up Türkiye’s foreign policy agenda. Whether this is simply another distraction from our depressing economic problems or represents a genuine change of heart remains to be seen.

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NATO’s 75th Anniversary

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July 3, 2024

As the NATO Heads of State meetings start in Washington next week, many will look at the past and evaluate the Alliance’s performance in the past 75 years. In my view, such an assessment must have two principal chapters: One on NATO’s performance in providing security for the territory of its members, and a second on the consequences of its members’ individual and collective actions, and their impact on the global perception of NATO and the West. In my view, the first is a success story, the second an entirely different one as I will elaborate at the end.

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The Summit on Peace in Ukraine  

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June 18, 2024

The Summit, organized by Switzerland, took place at Bürgenstock on June 15-16, 2024. The task of the meeting was to develop a common understanding of a path towards a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. In the absence of Russia and China expectations from the summit were modest. No one anticipated a debate on what a postwar settlement would look like or Ukraine’s hopes of joining NATO. Nonetheless, attendance was high. After all, countries across the globe are interested in peace in Ukraine regardless of their vision of the endgame.

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The War in Gaza to Continue

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June 17, 2024

On May 31, President Biden announced that Israel has offered a comprehensive new proposal. He described the three-phase Israeli plan as a roadmap to an enduring ceasefire and the release of all hostages. He added that the proposal had been transmitted by Qatar to Hamas.[i]

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The Arduous Path to Peace in Ukraine

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June 10, 2024

The past year has been a tough one for Ukraine. Its 2023 spring offensive failed. US military aid started coming after months of delay. Mobilization became unpopular in Ukrainian society. Children of Ukrainian migrants in Europe are experiencing schooling difficulties. By contrast, Russia has regained momentum.

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Israel’s Time of Troubles

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May 27, 2024

The Hamas onslaught of October 7 has been described by many as a “shock” for Israel. In terms of its violence, indeed it was a shock, but considering the misery, subjugation, and deprivation in Gaza, next to one of the world’s most prosperous and advanced countries, and growing international apathy toward the Palestinian question, a local outburst was only to be expected. Recently, Professor John Mearsheimer, a prominent critic of US foreign policy, called the situation in Gaza, “apartheid”.[i] And no wonder that the case against Israel was brought to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) by South Africa whose President Cyril Ramaphosa said that as a people who once tasted the bitter fruits of dispossession, discrimination, racism, and state-sponsored violence, they are clear that they will stand on the right side of history.

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“Yumuşama” in Türkiye

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May 13, 2024

During the past two weeks, the word “yumuşama” was widely used to describe “political change” in Türkiye. Though I know what some matching words are in English, I nonetheless looked up in the dictionary for alternatives. Among those were “moderation”, “softening”, “mellowing”, “relentment”, and “détente”. Being a retired diplomat, I was tempted at first to go inadvertently for “détente”. Inadvertently because the “policy of détente” refers to the time in the 1960s-1970s when the two superpowers, the USSR and the US eased tension and tried to cooperate to avoid conflict. It was a process.

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What After the Rafah Offensive?

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May 6, 2024

The UAE was the first Arab country to sign the Abraham Accords in 2020 normalizing relations with Israel. Later Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco followed suit. Washington then started encouraging Saudi Arabia to join the group. In July 2022,  Riyadh announced that it would open its airspace to all airlines, paving the way for more overflights to and from Israel. The normalization of Israel-Saudi Arabia relations appeared close. What led these countries to seek better relations with Israel was their desire to benefit from its advanced technological achievements in multiple fields and broaden the front against Iran and its Axis of Resistance. After all, Islamic solidarity is a myth, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation is a non-entity. Nonetheless, while signing the Accords they did not fail to pay lip service to the Palestinian cause. In reality, the question of Palestine was swept under the carpet for dynastic/national interest.

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The Question of the Endgame in Ukraine

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April 22, 2024

On February 26, 2024, President Macron, after hosting a meeting of 25 European leaders in Paris, said that there was “no consensus” on committing ground troops to the conflict in Ukraine but added, “Nothing should be excluded. We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war.” In early March, during a visit to the Czech Republic, Mr. Macron urged Ukraine’s allies not to be “cowards” in supporting its fight against the Russian invasion. However, Germany, the UK, Spain, Poland, and Czechia immediately ruled out any suggestion that they might commit ground troops to Ukraine. So did Washington.

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Controlled Escalation in the Middle East

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April 15, 2024

Since the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, I have held the view that Iran will continue to support its Middle East proxies but not to the brink of war with Israel. I still do.

Although Washington and its Western partners remained silent on the attack and ignored its international law dimension, Israel’s bombing of Iran’s diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1 marked an unprecedented escalation by Israel against Iran. Tehran’s response was to fire more than 300 drones and missiles on Israel. Of these, 99%  were intercepted overnight by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system. The US, UK, and France also helped to intercept the massive barrage of drones Iran fired. Thus, only several missiles reached Israeli territory, causing minor damage to an air base. There were no casualties.

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