The Uncertain Future of the Iran Nuclear Deal

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October 6, 2017

On September 19, President Trump addressed the 72nd Session of the United Nations General Assembly. He called the Iran nuclear deal an embarrassment to the US and said, “I don’t think you’ve heard the last of it – believe me.”

Yesterday, the Washington Post reported that President Trump is expected to announce next week that he will “decertify” the international nuclear deal with Iran, saying it is not in the national interest of the United States and kicking the issue to a reluctant Congress.  According to the Washington Post, Mr. Trump would hold off on recommending that Congress re-impose sanctions, which would constitute a clearer break from the pact. The decision would amount to a middle ground of sorts between Trump, who has long wanted to withdraw from the agreement completely, and many congressional leaders and senior diplomatic, military and national security advisers, who say the deal is worth preserving with changes if possible. Okumaya devam et →

Kurdistan Regional Government’s Referendum

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September 26, 2017

During his meeting with President Erdogan on the margins of the UN General Assembly, President Trump heaped words of praise on his guest.

“He’s running a very difficult part of the world,” Trump said. “He’s involved very, very strongly and, frankly, he’s getting very high marks. And he’s also been working with the United States. We have a great friendship as countries. I think we’re, right now, as close as we have ever been. And a lot of that has to do with the personal relationship.”

President Erdogan was reserved. He referred to his host as “my dear friend Donald” and said, “… we will be assessing the current relations between the United States and Turkey, and have an opportunity to discuss recent regional developments as well…” Okumaya devam et →

President Trump’s “Philosophical” UNGA Speech

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September 20, 2017

On Tuesday, President Trump addressed the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) for the first time (*). According to media reports based on White House and administration sources, this was going to be a “philosophical” speech. Yet, when Mr. Trump left the hall after his 42-minute remarks, he must also have left behind a confused and worried audience. Okumaya devam et →

UN’s Test with the Rohingya

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September 15, 2017
On December 15, 2016, respected think-tank International Crisis Group published a report titled, “Myanmar: A New Muslim Insurgency in Rakhine State” (*). This was following the attacks on Border Guard Police (BGP) bases in Myanmar’s northern Rakhine State on October 9, 2016 during which, according to the authorities, nine policemen lost their lives. The report dealt with the plight of the Rohingya, the emergence of a new insurgent group and warned of what could follow. These are key passages from the said report: Okumaya devam et →

A World in Conflict and Turkey

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September 11, 2017

Asked in a Guardian interview whether he had known a more dangerous time in his 30-year career, NATO’s Secretary General Stoltenberg said: “It is more unpredictable, and it’s more difficult because we have so many challenges at the same time… We have proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in North Korea, we have terrorists, instability, and we have a more assertive Russia… It is a more dangerous world… If I started to speculate about potential military options I would only add to the uncertainty and difficulty of the situation so I think my task is not to be contribute to that. I will support efforts to find a political, negotiated solution” (*). Okumaya devam et →

From “Redlines” to “All Options on the Table”

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September 4, 2017

In a world of transformation, diplomatic jargon is also undergoing change. Some key expressions no longer carry the weight they once did.

9:11 Terrorist attacks led to worldwide support for the US. The North Atlantic Council invoked Article 5 of the Washington Treaty which states that an armed attack against one or more of the Allies in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all. The NATO-Russia Permanent Joint Council called on the entire international community to unite in the struggle against terrorism. The unity of the international community provided legitimacy for the US intervention in Afghanistan. The invasion of Iraq was a different case. Okumaya devam et →

Afghanistan: More of the Same

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August 25, 2017

President Trump’s remarks on the strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia did not break new ground. The principal challenge, as before, remains Afghan leaders forging a united front not only to fight the Taliban, al-Qaeda, tribalism, warlordism and corruption but also to achieve better governance.

The criticism Mr. Trump directed at Pakistan was more strongly worded than that of his predecessor who stated the following before a joint session of the Indian Parliament on November 8, 2010:

“… And we’ll continue to insist to Pakistan’s leaders that terrorist safe havens within their borders are unacceptable, and that terrorists behind the Mumbai attacks must be brought to justice…”

Although President Obama left it at that, his choice of venue for those remarks must have caused deep consternation in Islamabad. Okumaya devam et →

German-Turkish Relations: The Downturn Continues

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August 21, 2017

According to a recent Pew Research Center survey titled, “Publics Worldwide Unfavorable Toward Putin, Russia”, in few countries surveyed did people exhibit confidence in Putin to do the right thing regarding world affairs (1). Globally, a median of 60% said that they lack confidence in Putin’s global leadership. Europe emerged as the region least confident in Putin, with a median of 78% expressing a lack of confidence in the Russian President. Eight-in-ten or more in Poland (89%), Spain (88%), the Netherlands (87%), Sweden (87%) and France (80%) lack trust in Putin. The figure for Germany and Turkey is 74%. Okumaya devam et →

World’s North Korea Conundrum

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August 13, 2017

Following his first meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago on April 7, President Trump said, “… the relationship developed by President Xi and myself I think is outstanding…” 

On July 30, a disappointed President Trump launched a Twitter assault on Peking saying, “I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet… they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk. We will no longer allow this to continue. China could easily solve this problem!” Okumaya devam et →

Afghanistan Moving up on Washington’s Agenda

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August 7, 2017

For some time now, the Trump administration has been working on a “new strategy” for Afghanistan; a task which unfortunately offers little room for innovative approaches. Reportedly, this new strategy would authorize the Pentagon to set troop numbers in Afghanistan and give the military far broader authority to use airstrikes against the Taliban and IS affiliates. It is understood that sending at least 4,000 more troops and lifting the restrictions that limited the mobility of U.S. military advisers on the battlefield are under consideration. This new strategy is also expected to push an increasingly confident and resurgent Taliban back to the negotiating table. And, with the news that President Trump is frustrated with the delay in finalizing this new strategy and has threatened to fire General Nicholson, the top US military commander there, the question of Afghanistan has moved up on Washington’s agenda. Reports that Iran is gaining ground in Afghanistan as American presence wanes must add to the frustration. Okumaya devam et →