September 14, 2026

The war in Ukraine—Europe’s longest and deadliest conflict since World War II—continues to escalate. Many observers agree that this will be a tough winter for Ukrainians.

Earlier this year, the EU finalized a $100 billion loan for Ukraine. However, in late August, President Zelensky told European allies that Ukraine now faces an unexpectedly large defense budget shortfall and needs an additional $27 billion to get through the year. Zelensky’s request for additional funds is the latest signal that the war’s cost to Europe will continue to rise.

President Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, recently visited Moscow and Kyiv. Notwithstanding positive references by both sides regarding their meeting with President Putin, there seems to be no progress toward peace. The envoys’ visits served only to demonstrate that, despite the war with Iran—now in its seventh month—Washington has not altogether forgotten about Ukraine. However, hopes even for a de facto peace remain dim. Russia’s hybrid warfare, questions about planned reductions in US conventional forces in Europe, and Washington’s commitment to NATO’s nuclear deterrence have prompted additional concerns across the continent.

At present, Europe has assumed full responsibility for providing Ukraine with military support. Germany is investing heavily in defense; yet Germany, once Europe’s economic powerhouse, faces stagnant growth. Moreover, the rise of the German far right constitutes a major political challenge for the government.

German Foreign Minister Wadephul, addressing today’s multiple international challenges at the Business Forum of the German Ambassadors, mentioned the wars in Ukraine and Iran, as well as “volatile and challenging trade relations with the US, traditionally the EU’s closest trading partner.” He probably had more in mind but preferred to stop there.

He added that “economic ties with China are increasingly imbalanced. Non-market policies and an undervalued currency threaten to erode our industrial base and turn critical dependencies into strategic vulnerabilities.”

On top of all that, as Minister Wadephul put it, “climate change and extreme weather events are triggering significant economic losses and disrupting supply chains.”[i]

The world is currently grappling with the fallout from the expanding US-Israel war with Iran. Global energy security is under serious threat, and prices are soaring. While the Middle East has rarely been a region of peace and stability, the present situation is a profound shock not just for the region, but also for the world.

The 81st session of the UN General Assembly opened on September 8. The first day of the high-level General Debate will be Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Does anyone expect groundbreaking progress on these regional and global crises? Unlikely.

Diplomats and scholars once frequently referred to the “rules-based international order.” Whatever that phrase meant in the past, does anyone invoke it today? Hardly.

After World War II, Western Europe experienced unprecedented peace, stability, and economic growth. The war in Ukraine has dramatically altered that reality, carrying severe consequences for the rest of the world. A major disruption in grain exports from Black Sea ports, for instance, directly threatens global food supplies and prices.

I have often asked myself if this war could have been avoided. I am sure others ask the same question. I am inclined to believe that it could—and should—have “ avoided.

In this connection, I would suggest that students of international relations and European history read the book “Towards the Flame” by Dominic Lieven. The book was first published in 2015 in the US by Viking, and a year later, by Penguin Books.

The first page of this remarkable, must-read work begins as follows and ends with a footnote:

“As much as anything, the First World War turned on the fate of Ukraine.* To an English-speaking audience, this statement this will seem final confirmation that most professors are crazy…

“Nevertheless, my statement is not as far-fetched as it seems. Without Ukraine’s population, industry, and agriculture, early-twentieth-century Russia would have ceased to be a great power…”

“* This may seem a shameless attempt by a historian to link history to a hot topic in the news. In fact, it was the first sentence of a talk I gave at Trinity College, Cambridge, on November 13, 2013, long before the Ukrainian crisis exploded.” [ii]

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[i] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2801476-2801476

[ii] Dominic Lieven, Towards the Flame (Penguin Books, 2016), page 1.