Etiket arşivi: İran

Confusion over the Camp David Summit

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13 May 2015
Following his visit to Riyadh, Secretary Kerry met with his Gulf counterparts in Paris on Friday, May 8th in preparation of this week’s summit at Camp David. After the meeting, Kerry and Saudi Foreign Minister al-Jubair held a joint press conference. This is what the Saudi Minister had to say on the summit:
“… We also spent another hour and a half on Camp David and the objectives of Camp David and the issues that will be discussed at Camp David. Don’t ask me to talk about it because I won’t; I can just tell you in general terms that they have to do with the intensifying and strengthening the security-military relationship between the United States of America and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, as well as dealing with new challenges that we face in the region, foremost of which is the Iranian interference in the affairs of the countries of the region.
“We were very pleased with the discussions. I thought they were very – extremely productive, very useful…” Okumaya devam et →

Yemen: Time for Decisive Diplomacy

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9 May 2015
Saudi Arabia has announced a five-day humanitarian cease-fire in Yemen. The cease-fire is supposed to start on Tuesday, May 12th at 11:00 p.m., last for five days and be subject to renewal. During two press conferences with Secretary Kerry, the first in Riyadh on 7 May 2015 and the second in Paris the next day, Saudi Arabia’s new Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubair said that there had been no contact with the Houthis on this. A senior Houthi official told BBC Arabic on Friday that the ceasefire had not been formally proposed and the Houthis would not respond until a plan was properly laid out. Okumaya devam et →

Turkey’s Upcoming Election and the Syria Conflict

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4 May 2015

On 27 April, the International Crisis Group published the “Statement on a Syrian Policy Framework”. The Statement starts with an analysis of the conflict and then suggests a framework for a political deal based on the understanding that Bashar Assad cannot rule a post-war Syria and Iran’s influence in the Levant cannot be eliminated(*). Following are its key observations on the status quo:
“On its current trajectory, and with no military or diplomatic breakthrough on the horizon, the Syrian war will worsen…
“Whatever the parties to the conflict may think, no side is winning… the regime is losing ground outside its core areas… The mainstream opposition’s scorecard is similarly mixed…
“U.S.-led airstrikes have helped drive ISIS from some Kurdish areas east of Aleppo but have not fundamentally weakened its hold in eastern Syria…
“If Syria and its external stakeholders are to escape more years of war, rising costs, further destruction of the nation’s torn social fabric and worsening trans-border radicalization, a serious effort must be made, first and foremost, to define the parameters of an ultimate political solution…” Okumaya devam et →

Yemen’s Ordeal Continues

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28 April 2015

On 24 April Saudi Arabia announced that “Operation Decisive Storm” had achieved its objective and priority would now shift to rebuilding the country and political dialogue. This new phase was to be called “Renewal of Hope”. This led me to be cautiously optimistic because the Saudis through their air campaign had made their point militarily and the UN Security Council Resolution 2216 had given them everything they could reasonably expect diplomatically. Wrong! Hours later the air strikes were resumed. It is now understood that the air campaign had not ended but only entered another, “more limited” phase. Okumaya devam et →

UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2216 on Yemen

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17 April 2015
UNSC Resolution 2216 of 14 April 2015 represents a diplomatic victory for Saudi Arabia and its regional allies, in particular the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. In this Resolution, the Security Council remains silent on the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen. But it does; Okumaya devam et →

Escalation in Yemen

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15 April 2015
The fighting in Yemen no doubt reminds Turks of a beautiful but sad folk song (Lament of Yemen) mourning the loss of thousands of Turkish soldiers in this far away part of the Ottoman Empire during the First World War. Its refrain goes;

“… Those who go there do not return, why…”

They did not return because there was no way that the Ottoman Empire, in steady decline for centuries, could hold on to Yemen. It was a lost cause. As a matter of fact, the end of the First World War also marked the end of the Empire and the beginning of the Turkish War of Independence under the leadership of Atatürk.

Pakistan’s Parliament voted unanimously and wisely last Friday not to get involved in the conflict in the far away Yemen. Instead it called upon the Nawas Sharif government to engage in diplomacy to end the fighting. Indeed, this could only have been the “wrong war” for Pakistan. Okumaya devam et →

Middle East Desperate for a Course Correction

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10 April 2015
President Obama has again spoken to Thomas L. Friedman of the New York Times. Although the interview essentially aimed at reassuring the people of Israel and Congressional opponents that the framework agreed upon in Lausanne represents the best possible solution under the circumstances, what the President said about the root causes of Middle East turmoil was also important.

In his address to the United Nations General Assembly on 24 September 2013 the President had said, “The United States will at times work with governments that do not meet the highest international expectations, but who work with us on our core interests. But we will not stop asserting principles that are consistent with our ideals…”

This was before ISIS emerged as an additional threat to stability in the Middle East and beyond.

Okumaya devam et →

Arab States Trying to Overcome Disarray

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30 March 2015

On 26 March 2015, Saudi Arabia supported by the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar started air strikes against the Houthis who in addition to Yemen’s capital Sana had also captured the country’s second largest city Aden forcing the deposed but still struggling President Hadi to flee. It was reported that Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, Egypt and Pakistan were also taking part in the operations. According to the Egyptian state news agency, Egypt’s support could involve ground forces. The US and Turkey also announced their support. Okumaya devam et →

Syria Conflict Enters Its Fifth Year

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17 March 2015

During the past four years of internal strife more than two hundred thousand Syrians lost their lives. Almost half the population is either internally displaced or living as refugees in neighboring countries. Homes and infrastructure are in ruins. “Islamic State of Iraq (ISI)” founded in October 2006 has turned into ISIL extending its reach to Syria. The UN has been a bystander. The region remains as divided as ever. The problem is no longer just the Syrian conflict but also proxy wars in Libya and Yemen. Nobody would admit a mistake but this is a disaster situation. Okumaya devam et →

ABD İçin Sıkıntılı Günler

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(Bu yazı, dostum Emekli Büyükelçi Yusuf Buluç’la birlikte kaleme alınmıştır.)

11 Aralık 2014

11 Eylül terör saldırılarının, Vaşington’un dünyaya bakışında bir dönüm noktası olduğu tartışma götürmez. Bu saldırılar o tarihte ABD’ye karşı, sınırlı bir radikal çevre dışında, tüm dünyada büyük bir sempatinin doğmasına neden olmuştu.

Ancak, sekiz yıllık Bush Yönetimi, bu sempatinin, ABD çıkarları ve daha yapıcı bir dünya düzeni için yarattığı avantajı maalesef değerlendiremedi. ABD’nin ilk tepkisi Afganistan’da El Kaide ve Taliban’a yönelik harekât oldu. Tepki bununla sınırlı kalsaydı, Orta Doğu bugün farklı bir noktada olabilirdi. Irak müdahalesi Orta Doğu’nun sorun kaldırma kapasitesine ağır bir yük daha ekledi. Terörü tırmandırdı. Irak’ın komşuları için sorun yarattı. Bölgesel dengeleri sarstı. Batı içerisinde ciddi bölünmelere neden oldu. Kaldı ki, Irak’ta kitle imha silahlarının mevcudiyeti de kanıtlanamadı. Okumaya devam et →