Etiket arşivi: Syria

The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Blitzkrieg

Bir Cevap Yazın

December 9, 2024

After thirteen years of internal fighting, loss of life, and devastation, the five-decade-long Assad regime was swept away in barely two weeks. President Hafez al-Assad, the father, was the President of Syria from 1971 until his death in 2000. He was Türkiye’s one and only regional enemy for years. For a decade, President Bashar al-Assad had the opportunity to transform Syria. Unfortunately, he was forced by the Syrian deep state to press ahead with his father’s autocratic rule, failed to moderate the regime, got Syria engulfed in the tremors of the Arab Spring, and caused much suffering. After all, democracy is not part of the Middle East’s political culture, but authoritarianism is. Nonetheless, he deserves credit for putting relations with Ankara on the right track in close cooperation with the AKP government.

Okumaya devam et →

Türkiye’s Thirteen Years of Trouble in Syria

Bir Cevap Yazın

December 4, 2024

The recent “rebel” offensive in northern Syria has brought multiple security challenges once again along our 911-kilometer border with our southern neighbor. The confusion it has caused is understandable because there are not only countries but many “rebel groups” with different interests. Relationships are intriguing and conflictual. As usual, attention is now focused on battlefield developments and the diplomatic flurry among the principal players. Nonetheless, how we got here is a lesson we, the people of Türkiye, should never forget as I have repetitiously underlined in earlier posts regarding Syria.

The following, with several minor grammatical corrections, is a blog post I published more than four years ago.

Okumaya devam et →

The Middle East, World’s Region of Conflict

Bir Cevap Yazın

February 12, 2024

US State Department’s Office of the Historian says that  Secretary of State Warren Christopher “eschewed confrontation in favor of negotiation with friend and foe alike”. Indeed, during his tenure as Secretary of State, from January 1993 to January 1997, he paid 200 visits to different countries including those in which he accompanied President Clinton. A hundred of those visits were to the Middle East: 5 to Saudi Arabia, 8 to Jordan, 8 to the Palestinian National Authority, 15 to Egypt, 29 to Syria, and 34 to Israel.

Okumaya devam et →

Iraq and Syria Refuse Being Made Punching Bags

Bir Cevap Yazın

February 5, 2024

On January 3, twin blasts near the burial site of Qasem Soleimani, the former head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, killed a hundred people and injured scores in the southern Iranian city of Kerman adding to concerns about a widening regional conflict. President Raisi’s political deputy, Mohammad Jamshidi, blamed Israel and the US for the attack. Later, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei vowed a “harsh response” to the attack but did not mention either Israel or the US.

Okumaya devam et →

2024: Another Challenging Year for the West

Bir Cevap Yazın

January 2, 2024

On May 7, 2021, China initiated a virtual discussion at the UN Security Council on the future of the Organization and the international order. 

In remarks to the Security Council, Secretary Blinken, after thanking China for the initiative, underlined respect for international commitments, particularly the legally binding ones such as the UN Charter, treaties and conventions, UN Security Council resolutions, international humanitarian law, and the rules and standards agreed to under the auspices of the World Trade Organization and numerous international standard-setting organizations.

Okumaya devam et →

A Light Breeze of Change in the Middle East

Bir Cevap Yazın

April 17, 2023

On March 10, 2023, the “Joint Trilateral Statement by the People’s Republic of China, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the Islamic Republic of Iran” was issued in Beijing. The Joint Statement started with a reference “to the noble initiative of President Xi Jinping and China’s support for developing good neighborly relations between the Kingdom and the Islamic Republic”. It then mentioned the gratitude of both parties to the Republic of Iraq and the Sultanate of Oman for hosting rounds of dialogue that took place between both sides during the years 2021-2022. The two sides also expressed their appreciation and gratitude to China for hosting and sponsoring the talks. Getting credit for peace-making in the Middle East is a noteworthy achievement.

Okumaya devam et →

“Retreat” or “Normalization of Relations”?

Bir Cevap Yazın

August 25, 2022

In the military context, the word “retreat” means “the usually forced withdrawal of troops from an enemy or from an advanced position”. In a broader context, it is defined as “an act or process of withdrawing especially from what is difficult, dangerous, or disagreeable”. [i] For obvious reasons, the word is anathema to politicians. They prefer expressions like “revision” or “updating” of policy. But in Türkiye, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) avoids even using such expressions as they might be conceived as an admission of error. It prefers to refer to its foreign policy reversals as “normalization of relations”. How we ended up having an abnormal state of relations with others is not an issue.

Okumaya devam et →

Balance Sheet of the Past Week

Bir Cevap Yazın

July 25, 2022

The Presidents of Iran, Russia, and Türkiye met in the Astana format on July 19, 2022. President Erdogan went to Tehran to secure the understanding of his partners for a military operation against the PKK/YPG in Syria that has been on his agenda for some time. The Joint Statement issued at the end of the Tehran summit addressed Ankara’s terrorism concerns in principle, but in so far as action was concerned it fell short of his expectations.[i]

Okumaya devam et →

Ukraine Crisis: A Reminder from the Middle East

Bir Cevap Yazın

February 7, 2022

The Russia-West standoff over Ukraine continues. The US and its European allies are warning of a serious risk of a Russian offensive against Ukraine. Moscow is claiming that the US is trying to pull Russia into an armed conflict over Ukraine that Russia does not want. The US is sending troops to Germany, Poland, and Romania. The West is waiting for the Russian response to its written proposals which Moscow says focus only on secondary issues. Lines of argument and underlying rationale are getting increasingly blurred and confusing.

Okumaya devam et →

Turkish Foreign Policy Must Restore Its Republican Settings

Bir Cevap Yazın

October 19, 2021

Afghanistan developments could only divert Turkey’s attention from Syria for a while. With the meeting on September 29 between Presidents Putin and Erdogan, and the latter’s comments signaling another  operation against the PYD/YPG, we are back to Idlib.

Since the very beginning of the Syrian conflict there have been three major challenges before a political settlement:

•          Breaking the deadlock over President Assad’s future;

•          Persuading the external/regional backers of Damascus and the opposition to give their support not only in words but also in deeds to a Syrian-owned political transition; and,

•          Securing a broad-based agreement on who is a “terrorist” and who is a “moderate”.

Okumaya devam et →