Etiket arşivi: JCPOA

Iran-US Negotiations

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June 8, 2026

Today marks the 100th day of the Israeli-US war with Iran, which President Trump had said would last “four to six weeks”. Despite the ceasefire, both sides remain engaged not only in exchange of fire but also in a battle of words. Nonetheless, the Iran-US talks are continuing, and the main challenge for the US negotiators is to reach a deal that can be presented to US public opinion as a better one than President Obama’s. In other words, they are after “JCPOA plus”. The difference is that the problem is no longer just Iran’s nuclear program. Linked to that are the questions of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for the world’s oil and fertilizer trade, and the war in Lebanon.

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What if the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) Had Survived?

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January 19, 2026

The anti-regime protests in Iran were the top development of global attention over the past weeks. In the background was the nature of the Iranian regime, its controversial and confrontational regional outreach, which, to a large extent, resulted from the US invasion of Iraq, the Syrian conflict, regional rivalries, and the failure of the Iran nuclear deal. The last one compelled me to look back at the past.

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The Future of Iran’s Nuclear Program

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July 14, 2025

The Twelve-Day War and Operation Midnight Hammer have cast a shadow of uncertainty over the Middle East, raising questions about the pathway of Iran’s nuclear program. Of particular interest is how the US and Israel, the two principal opponents of a nuclear-armed Iran, would pursue their unvarying objective of not allowing Tehran to produce nuclear weapons.

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Iran Closer to Defeat

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June 25, 2025

On July 18, 2015, the JCPoA was signed between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany. The intention to engage Iran had already been made clear by President Obama in his landmark Cairo speech on June 4, 2009, when he had said, “In the middle of the Cold War, the United States played a role in the overthrow of a democratically elected Iranian government. This history is well known.” He was referring to the 1953 overthrow of Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddeq by a coup engineered by the US and the UK.

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President Biden’s Middle East Trip

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July 18, 2022

President Biden’s trip to the Middle East took place against the background of Arab-Israeli disenchantment with the Obama White House, the Netanyahu-Trump relationship, the uncertain future of the Iran nuclear deal, the far-reaching consequences of the war in Ukraine, the strategic competition with China and Russia, and his plummeting approval rates at home.  

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Ukraine Crisis: A Reminder from the Middle East

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February 7, 2022

The Russia-West standoff over Ukraine continues. The US and its European allies are warning of a serious risk of a Russian offensive against Ukraine. Moscow is claiming that the US is trying to pull Russia into an armed conflict over Ukraine that Russia does not want. The US is sending troops to Germany, Poland, and Romania. The West is waiting for the Russian response to its written proposals which Moscow says focus only on secondary issues. Lines of argument and underlying rationale are getting increasingly blurred and confusing.

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Restoring the JCPOA

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April 5, 2021

On July 14, 2015 the P5+1 and Iran agreed on the JCPOA.

The deal represented a sea change for Iran. It came out of the negotiation process as a successful interlocutor for the P5+1 giving a boost to regime’s legitimacy. It moved from being an adversary to a potential partner for the West. The gradual removing of the sanctions brought dynamism to its economy. Foreign companies flocked into the country. GDP growth rate surged from -1.3 % in 2015, to +13.4 % in 2016.

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Iran Nuclear Deal: A Tough Path Ahead

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Co-authored with Yusuf Buluc (*)

February 1, 2021

From the very beginning of his presidency Mr. Trump’s principal foreign policy target was the Iran nuclear deal, described by many as his predecessor’s “signature achievement”.

Thus, the US announced its withdrawal from the JCPOA on May 8, 2018. A month later, on June 12, 2018 Mr. Trump met North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore. Following the summit, he held a press conference and said, “My meeting with Chairman Kim was honest, direct, and productive. We got to know each other well in a very confined period of time, under very strong, strong circumstance. We’re prepared to start a new history and we’re ready to write a new chapter between our nations.”

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A Turning Point in Washington

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January 20, 2021

With inauguration safely behind, President Biden would now start addressing America’s polarization, Covid-19, and a wrecked foreign policy. He has a far heavier agenda than many of his predecessors.

Among his major tasks in the international arena would be restoring confidence in the Washington’s foreign policy steadiness and charting a reasonable course in relations with China and Russia. Washington’s traditional Western allies, disillusioned with the Trump presidency, would give Mr. Biden more than a warm welcome while anxiously watching domestic developments in the US. Because according to a CNN poll, 47% of Republicans still say the party should continue to treat Trump as the leader of the party. And remains to be seen whether going ahead with a second impeachment, though more than justified, was a politically wise decision.

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The JCPOA, Middle East Peace, and the US Presidential Election

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August 24, 2020

The UN Security Council has adopted seven resolutions[i] addressing Iran’s nuclear program. Only Resolution 2231 (2015) remains in effect today. After Iran and the P5+1 reached agreement on the JCPOA, the Security Council endorsed the deal through this Resolution and set up measures to lift UN sanctions targeting Iran’s nuclear program. However, it kept certain restrictions on ballistic missile activities and arms sales. The latter is set to expire on October 18, 2020, five years after JCPOA’s Adoption Day. Okumaya devam et →