From Joint Action Plan toward a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

Bir Cevap Yazın

Co-authored with Yusuf Buluc (*)

5 April 2015

On 23 November 2013 P5+1 and Iran reached agreement on a Joint Plan of Action which was a road map for the negotiation process that was to follow. Sixteen months later we have a framework for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the last step before a “final deal” which should be in place by 30 June 2015.

As a general assessment we wish to quote from and largely concur with the statement issued by the International Crisis Group on 2 April 2015:
“The International Crisis Group applauds the 2 April agreement on a framework for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action reached between Iran and the P5+1/EU3+3 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany). This achievement is a triumph of multilateral diplomacy and a testament to the seriousness of purpose, patience and persistence of the negotiators involved in this process.
“… Negotiated outcomes by nature are imperfect. These agreed upon parameters provide Iran with an enrichment capacity higher than the U.S. and its allies preferred, and sanctions relief slower and more circumscribed than Iran desired. But both sides have protected their core interests and rightfully can claim victory – a precondition for any sustainable solution.
“This accomplishment is not final; it is as fragile as the forces against it are formidable. It has serious critics in Iran, the U.S. and the region…” Okumaya devam et →

Arab States Trying to Overcome Disarray

Bir Cevap Yazın

30 March 2015

On 26 March 2015, Saudi Arabia supported by the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar started air strikes against the Houthis who in addition to Yemen’s capital Sana had also captured the country’s second largest city Aden forcing the deposed but still struggling President Hadi to flee. It was reported that Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, Egypt and Pakistan were also taking part in the operations. According to the Egyptian state news agency, Egypt’s support could involve ground forces. The US and Turkey also announced their support. Okumaya devam et →

Turkish Foreign Policy in a Blind Alley

Bir Cevap Yazın

25 March 2015

It was only a decade ago that Turkey, in recognition of its commitment to continuing political and economic reform, was given green light to start accession negotiations with the EU. Peoples of the region were following the process with envy. It was less than a decade ago that Turkey was playing a facilitator role between Syria and Israel. Our relations with neighbors were characterized by a determination to open new avenues of cooperation reflecting shared interest. It was in 2004 that a consortium led by a Turkish company won the contract to build the third terminal of the Cairo airport. The terminal was opened at the end of 2008 and doubled airport’s passenger capacity. In April 2009 Turkey became the first country to host President Obama on a bilateral visit. Okumaya devam et →

Ukraine: An Uncertain Cease-fire and Quasi Stability…

Bir Cevap Yazın

20 March 2015

It has been more than a month since Presidents Putin, Poroshenko, Hollande and Chancellor Merkel issued the “Declaration of Minsk in Support of the Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements” and reiterated their belief that there is no alternative to a peaceful solution. The failure to declare an “immediate” cease-fire was not a good sign. President Poroshenko later revealed that the Ukrainian side had proposed this but the separatists insisted on a sixty hour lead-in period. It must have been clear to everyone around the table that what the separatists wanted was a window of opportunity to capture Debaltseve which they accomplished. Okumaya devam et →

Syria Conflict Enters Its Fifth Year

Bir Cevap Yazın

17 March 2015

During the past four years of internal strife more than two hundred thousand Syrians lost their lives. Almost half the population is either internally displaced or living as refugees in neighboring countries. Homes and infrastructure are in ruins. “Islamic State of Iraq (ISI)” founded in October 2006 has turned into ISIL extending its reach to Syria. The UN has been a bystander. The region remains as divided as ever. The problem is no longer just the Syrian conflict but also proxy wars in Libya and Yemen. Nobody would admit a mistake but this is a disaster situation. Okumaya devam et →

Turkish-Israeli Relations: Deadlock Continues…

Bir Cevap Yazın

13 March 2015
Israel will hold elections on 17 March and Turkey on 7 June 2015. So this may be a good time to look at the relationship.

Turkey and Israel enjoyed good relations for decades. For a long time, this was a negative element in the myriad of complexities which have historically characterized Arab countries’ ambivalent attitude towards Turkey. Gradually, however, they saw that Turkish-Israeli cooperation was not directed against their interests. Nevertheless, it gave them an excuse to criticize Turkey whenever the need arose.

With Justice and Development Party (JDP/AKP) in power in Turkey in 2002, an element of uncertainty was introduced into this relationship. Israel was concerned about JDP’s Islamic roots and the importance it attached to the Palestinian question. Ankara was not pleased with reports of Israel’s support to Iraqi Kurds following the US invasion. However, the relationship continued without a major disturbance until the “one minute” incident at the World Economic Forum in Davos on 30 January 2009 where Prime Minister Erdogan, in the presence of President Shimon Peres, denounced Israel for its attitude towards the Palestinians. This marked the beginning of the downturn. Okumaya devam et →

“diplomatikyorum.com” dan “diplomaticopinion.com”a…

Bir Cevap Yazın

25 Aralık 2014

Değerli okurlarım,
6 Aralık 2013 tarihinde yazmaya başladığım “diplomatikyorum.com”da bugüne kadar 105 kez sizlerle görüşlerimi paylaştım.
Şimdi biraz ara vermek, sonra da farklı bir başlangıç yapmak istiyorum.
Şubat ayı içerisinde “diplomaticopinion.com”da buluşmak ümidiyle sizlere mutlu bir yeni yıl diliyorum.
Ali Tuygan

2014’den 2015’e

Bir Cevap Yazın

25 Aralık 2014
Geride bırakmakta olduğumuz yılın değerlendirmesine başlamadan önce geçen sene bu günlerde kaleme aldığım yazıya (2013’den 2014’e) göz gezdirdim.
Başkan Obama’nın sorunların çözümünde askeri müdahale yerine siyasi/diplomatik yöntemlere öncelik vermesinin küresel güçler arasındaki ilişkilere, özellikle ABD-Rusya münasebetlerine bir işbirliği anlayışı getirebileceğine dair öngörüm Ukrayna bunalımı nedeniyle gerçekleşmedi. Ancak sorun tamamen çığırından çıkarılmadı; yükselen retoriğe, yaptırımlara rağmen olabildiğince çevrelenmeye çalışıldı. Okumaya devam et →

Haydi Tunus!

Bir Cevap Yazın

23 Aralık 2014

Geçtiğimiz Pazar günü yapılan Tunus Cumhurbaşkanlığı seçiminin sonucu Bağımsız Yüksek Seçim Kurulu Başkanı tarafından dün açıklandı. Katılımın % 60 dolayında olduğu seçimi oyların % 55.28’ini alan Beji Caid Essebsi kazandı. Rakibi, Geçici Cumhurbaşkanı Moncef Marzuki’nin oy oranı ise % 44.32. Katılımın düşüklüğü Devrim sonrası dönemin yarattığı düş kırıklığı ile izah edilmekte. Bu anlaşılabilir olsa da, Tunus’un demokratik dönüşümünde aldığı mesafe ile diğer Arap Baharı ülkelerinden çok daha ileri bir noktada bulunduğu tartışılmaz. Okumaya devam et →

Rusya’da Ekonomik Kriz

Bir Cevap Yazın

 

19 Aralık 2014

Uluslararası gündem Türkiye’ye özenmeye başladı; aniden değişebiliyor. Aradaki fark, uluslararası gündemdeki değişikliklerinin çok ender de olsa iyimserlik ilham etmesi. Örneğin, “yeni bir soğuk savaş mı başlıyor?”sorusu sorulurken, o dönemin son duvarının yıkılmasına karar verildiğinin açıklanması gibi. Dünyanın bir numaralı küresel gücü ABD ile Küba arasında yarım asırdan uzun bir zamandır sürmekte olan “küçük soğuk savaşın” sona erdiriliyor ve diplomatik ilişkilerin ihya ediliyor olması aslında çok gecikmiş bir gelişme. Dolayısıyla Başkan Obama’nın attığı adımı alkışlamak gerekiyor. Obama ile Küba Cumhurbaşkanı Raul Castro arasında varılmış olan mutabakatın tam olarak yaşama geçirilebilmesi, örneğin Küba’ya uygulanmakta olan ambargoların kaldırılması Kongre onayını gerektirmekte. Oysa o cenahtan hemen muhalif sesler duyulmaya başladı bile… Okumaya devam et →