Etiket arşivi: Turkish foreign policy

Ankara’s Roller-coaster Foreign Policy

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November 6, 2023

Türkiye and Israel enjoyed good relations for decades. The coming to power of the AKP in 2002 introduced an element of uncertainty into the relationship. However, there was no major disturbance until the “one-minute” incident at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 30, 2009, where Prime Minister Erdoğan, in the presence of President Shimon Peres, strongly denounced Israel for its attitude toward the Palestinians. This marked the beginning of the downturn.

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Türkiye and the Gaza War

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November 1, 2023

The October 7 Hamas assault was a shock for the Israelis. It should not have been. As I mentioned in an earlier post, some foresaw that trouble was in the making. The following is from an International Crisis Group statement of March 21, 2023, titled “Persistent Violence in Israel-Palestine Could Escalate Further”:

“Tensions have been rising for the past few months, fueled by a combination of factors. Among them are deadly Israeli military raids in Palestinian population centers in the West Bank; killings of Israelis by individual Palestinians; mob rampages by Israeli settlers; incendiary statements by members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s new far-right government and the Knesset; a restless and militarily potent Hamas in the Gaza Strip; and a Palestinian Authority (PA) that has, in many Palestinians’ eyes, lost legitimacy as its security apparatus starts to break down.”

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No Quick End to the Gaza War

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October 21, 2023

On October 18, President Biden arrived in Tel Aviv on what many called “a high-stakes trip”. Mentioned in that context were standing resolutely behind Israel, preventing a wider regional conflict, and saving hostages. One may also add Mr. Biden’s legacy to the list.

After sharing hugs with Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Herzog, “We will continue to have Israel’s back as you work to defend your people,” he said at the airport.

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The Gaza War

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October 16, 2023

The following is from an International Crisis Group statement of March 21, 2023, titled “Persistent Violence in Israel-Palestine Could Escalate Further”:

“Tensions have been rising for the past few months, fueled by a combination of factors. Among them are deadly Israeli military raids in Palestinian population centers in the West Bank; killings of Israelis by individual Palestinians; mob rampages by Israeli settlers; incendiary statements by members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s new far-right government and the Knesset; a restless and militarily potent Hamas in the Gaza Strip; and a Palestinian Authority (PA) that has, in many Palestinians’ eyes, lost legitimacy as its security apparatus starts to break down.”[i]

In brief, some wise observers foresaw that some trouble was coming. Understandably, what they could not foresee was the extent of it.

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A World of Conflict

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October 9, 2023

Following the recent developments in Nagorno-Karabakh, Presidents Aliyev and Pashinyan were supposed to meet in Granada, Spain on October 5. Only days before the scheduled meeting, French Foreign Minister Colonna visited Yerevan where she said: “I would like to publicly state that France has agreed on future contracts with Armenia which will allow the delivery of military equipment to Armenia so that it can ensure its defense.” You’ll understand that I can’t go into more detail at the moment.” A few days later, citing unnamed sources, Azerbaijani media said that Mr. Aliyev had decided against the Granada meeting after France and Germany allegedly objected to President Erdoğan’s participation in the talks. French promise to send arms to Armenia was only a knee-jerk reaction, a reflection of Paris’ colonial instincts during times of trouble in Africa. It undermines efforts to achieve peace. Should Paris be interested in peace-making somewhere, it can turn to Libya, a country that was completely devastated thanks to the Sarkozy-led intervention in violation of a UN Security Council Resolution.

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Armenia and Azerbaijan Need a Paradigm Shift

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October 2, 2023

Baku’s lightning military operation of September 19-20 has ended three decades of de facto self-governance for Nagorno-Karabakh. The breakaway government announced last week that all government entities would be dissolved by the end of the year. Over a hundred thousand of its inhabitants have already left for Armenia. Without a shadow of a doubt, this is a humanitarian tragedy. Older generations of Turks know this very well since their grandparents have also experienced such tragedies before, during, and after the First World War having to leave their homes in the former territories of the Ottoman Empire, particularly in the Balkans.

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Western Military Interventions in the Middle East

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September 18, 2023

The Middle East has witnessed many Western military interventions since the end of the First World War. Two recent ones are particularly significant in drawing lessons for the future.

The Iraq-Iran War started on September 22, 1980. The war lasted eight years. In 1990 Saddam Hussein made his biggest mistake by ordering the invasion of Kuwait. The US-led military campaign forced Iraq to withdraw. The people of Iraq suffered for decades under sanctions. On March 20, 2003, the US joined by the UK and several coalition allies invaded Iraq. The invasion which was not sanctioned by the UN not only led to the collapse of the Ba’athist government but the Iraqi state as well.

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Growing Resistance to a New Cold War

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September 11, 2023

The major headline of the past week was the agreement of G20 countries on the New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration. The Western media generally reported that the leaders underscored that all states must act in a manner consistent with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter in its entirety; they must refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition against the territorial integrity and sovereignty or political independence of any state; and that the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible. However, there was some disappointment because the Declaration avoided any mention of Russia. The Bali G20 Leaders’ Declaration of 15-16 November 2022, mentioned Russia by name whereas the New Delhi Declaration only mentions the fundamental principles of the UN Charter, although who the addressee is amply clear.[i]

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Black Sea Grain and Russian-Turkish Relations

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September 6, 2023

During the past few weeks, many countries hoped that Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan’s and President Erdoğan’s visits to Russia would be a step toward reviving the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Unfortunately, this did not happen. During the joint press conference after the talks in Sochi, President Putin once again stressed that the Black Sea Grain Initiative was suspended because the Western countries had blocked the part of the deal that ensured Russian agricultural products access to global markets. He also said that of the 32.8 million tons of cargo exported from Ukraine, over 70 percent went to the wealthy countries, primarily to the EU, whereas the share of countries in real need of food aid accounted for only 3 percent, less than one million tons.

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A Marathon with No Finishing Line?

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August 28, 2023

The following are a few takeaways from the American press, in chronological order, about battlefront developments in Ukraine.

On April 5, 2022, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin appeared before the House Armed Services Committee for the first time after Russia invaded Ukraine.

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