World’s North Korea Conundrum

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August 13, 2017

Following his first meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago on April 7, President Trump said, “… the relationship developed by President Xi and myself I think is outstanding…” 

On July 30, a disappointed President Trump launched a Twitter assault on Peking saying, “I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet… they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk. We will no longer allow this to continue. China could easily solve this problem!” Okumaya devam et →

Afghanistan Moving up on Washington’s Agenda

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August 7, 2017

For some time now, the Trump administration has been working on a “new strategy” for Afghanistan; a task which unfortunately offers little room for innovative approaches. Reportedly, this new strategy would authorize the Pentagon to set troop numbers in Afghanistan and give the military far broader authority to use airstrikes against the Taliban and IS affiliates. It is understood that sending at least 4,000 more troops and lifting the restrictions that limited the mobility of U.S. military advisers on the battlefield are under consideration. This new strategy is also expected to push an increasingly confident and resurgent Taliban back to the negotiating table. And, with the news that President Trump is frustrated with the delay in finalizing this new strategy and has threatened to fire General Nicholson, the top US military commander there, the question of Afghanistan has moved up on Washington’s agenda. Reports that Iran is gaining ground in Afghanistan as American presence wanes must add to the frustration. Okumaya devam et →

Middle East’s Failures and External Meddling

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July 31, 2017

On April 4, 2017, toxic substance spread after Syrian warplanes dropped bombs on the town of Khan Sheikhoun in the rebel-held Idlib province. The West and Russia offered conflicting explanations for the tragedy. Three days later, US cruise missiles struck Al Sharyat airfield.

Five days later, President Trump’s fire-breathing Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley said, “In no way do we look at peace happening in that area with Iranian influence. In no way do we see peace in that area with Russia covering up for Assad. In no way do we see peace in that area with Assad as the head of the Syrian government.” Okumaya devam et →

Arab World in Disarray

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July 24, 2017
The competition between Tehran and Riyadh for regional supremacy attracts a lot of international attention. Precision forecasts in today’s turbulent and unpredictable Middle East remain risky. However, in retrospect, one cannot but observe that the trend has been Iran’s ascendancy particularly since the coming to power of President Rouhani and his choice of Javad Zarif as foreign minister. Okumaya devam et →

Diplomatic Realignment in the West?

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July 16, 2017
Dissolution of the Soviet Union marked the end of the Cold War. The profound changes in structures which had governed East-West relations for five decades led to a unipolar world at the center of which was the US. However, American intervention in Afghanistan, the invasion of Iraq, the cost and the difficulties of remaining on perpetual war footing did not allow this to last. With a steadily rising China and a resurgent Russia came the multipolar world. Ever since, “global realignment” has remained a current topic. And, last week’s G-20 summit in Hamburg, Chancellor Merkel’s “deploring” the decision by the US to withdraw from the Paris climate change agreement and President Trump’s somewhat surprise visit to France for Bastille Day led some to look at relations between Washington and its Western allies. Okumaya devam et →

Moving Towards Post-ISIS Iraq and Syria

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July 9, 2017

During his first visit to Moscow in July 2009 President Obama tried to “reset” US-Russia relations. It did not happen. The Arab Spring led to a new set of confrontations. Snowden affair became an irritant and lead to the cancellation by Washington of an Obama-Putin meeting that was to take place during the G-20 summit in St. Petersburg. Yet, their brief encounter there on September 5, 2013 led agreement on the elimination of Syrian chemical weapons only to be followed by the crisis in Ukraine. Okumaya devam et →

Gulf Crisis and Turkey (3)

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July 2, 2017
After a few days of make-believe mediation between the parties, Turkey has become Qatar’s staunchest supporter in the Gulf crisis. Because, the thirteen-point ultimatum presented to Qatar also includes the immediate termination of Turkish military presence in Qatar and the ending of any joint military cooperation with Turkey in Qatar. President Erdogan called this an act of disrespect towards Turkey. Apparently, Turkey also approached Saudi Arabia for building a military base there, but the offer was rejected. Okumaya devam et →

On Turkey and the Middle East

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June 24, 2017
In the fall of 1966, I took a series of exams to join the Turkish Foreign Ministry. Among other things, we were asked to comment on a widely used metaphor, “Turkey is a bridge between East and West”. I wrote that throughout history Anatolia had been a meeting point of cultures and that Turkey’s future lied in creating a successful synthesis. During my later years in diplomatic service I continuously objected to the use of this metaphor arguing that a bridge belongs to neither of its banks and that Turkey had already made her choice. With the launching of EU accession negotiations in October 2005 I came to believe that we had finally crossed the Bosporus Bridge and were travelling towards the West. This by no means meant a rupture with the East for obvious reasons. Moreover, our good relations with the region were seen as an asset by the EU. Okumaya devam et →

Middle East of Inconsistencies

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June 19, 2017

“Pact of the League of Arab States” defines the purpose of the League as achieving close collaboration between Member States to safeguard their independence and sovereignty.

Articles 5. and 6. of the Pact state the following: Okumaya devam et →

The Gulf Crisis and Turkey (2)

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June 12, 2017

On June 9, 2017, in a statement on the Middle East, Secretary Tillerson said:

“… As we combine efforts to defeat the military, financial, and ideological support of terrorists, we expect to see progress in the Arab world toward greater political expression. An important pathway to attack Islamic extremism and to prevent political activism from escalating into violence is to allow marginalized voices opportunities for political expression. Okumaya devam et →