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Refugee Dimension of the Libya Lesson

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23 April 2015
I hold the view that the Libya intervention went beyond the letter and spirit of what was envisaged in United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973 of 17 March 2011 and caused divisions within the international community (*). The growing loss of migrant lives in the Mediterranean has once again focused attention on the intervention.

Rick Noack, in his Washington Post article of 21 April 2015 gave three reasons why Europe is being held responsible for migrant deaths in the Mediterranean. These were the following:
• The E.U. downsized its rescue mission in a bid to deter refugees from risking crossing the Mediterranean,
• It is nearly impossible to enter Europe legally if you’re a refugee,
• NATO and E.U. member states bombed Libya but failed to rebuild the country. Okumaya devam et →

UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2216 on Yemen

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17 April 2015
UNSC Resolution 2216 of 14 April 2015 represents a diplomatic victory for Saudi Arabia and its regional allies, in particular the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. In this Resolution, the Security Council remains silent on the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen. But it does; Okumaya devam et →

Escalation in Yemen

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15 April 2015
The fighting in Yemen no doubt reminds Turks of a beautiful but sad folk song (Lament of Yemen) mourning the loss of thousands of Turkish soldiers in this far away part of the Ottoman Empire during the First World War. Its refrain goes;

“… Those who go there do not return, why…”

They did not return because there was no way that the Ottoman Empire, in steady decline for centuries, could hold on to Yemen. It was a lost cause. As a matter of fact, the end of the First World War also marked the end of the Empire and the beginning of the Turkish War of Independence under the leadership of Atatürk.

Pakistan’s Parliament voted unanimously and wisely last Friday not to get involved in the conflict in the far away Yemen. Instead it called upon the Nawas Sharif government to engage in diplomacy to end the fighting. Indeed, this could only have been the “wrong war” for Pakistan. Okumaya devam et →

Middle East Desperate for a Course Correction

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10 April 2015
President Obama has again spoken to Thomas L. Friedman of the New York Times. Although the interview essentially aimed at reassuring the people of Israel and Congressional opponents that the framework agreed upon in Lausanne represents the best possible solution under the circumstances, what the President said about the root causes of Middle East turmoil was also important.

In his address to the United Nations General Assembly on 24 September 2013 the President had said, “The United States will at times work with governments that do not meet the highest international expectations, but who work with us on our core interests. But we will not stop asserting principles that are consistent with our ideals…”

This was before ISIS emerged as an additional threat to stability in the Middle East and beyond.

Okumaya devam et →

From Joint Action Plan toward a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

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Co-authored with Yusuf Buluc (*)

5 April 2015

On 23 November 2013 P5+1 and Iran reached agreement on a Joint Plan of Action which was a road map for the negotiation process that was to follow. Sixteen months later we have a framework for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the last step before a “final deal” which should be in place by 30 June 2015.

As a general assessment we wish to quote from and largely concur with the statement issued by the International Crisis Group on 2 April 2015:
“The International Crisis Group applauds the 2 April agreement on a framework for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action reached between Iran and the P5+1/EU3+3 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany). This achievement is a triumph of multilateral diplomacy and a testament to the seriousness of purpose, patience and persistence of the negotiators involved in this process.
“… Negotiated outcomes by nature are imperfect. These agreed upon parameters provide Iran with an enrichment capacity higher than the U.S. and its allies preferred, and sanctions relief slower and more circumscribed than Iran desired. But both sides have protected their core interests and rightfully can claim victory – a precondition for any sustainable solution.
“This accomplishment is not final; it is as fragile as the forces against it are formidable. It has serious critics in Iran, the U.S. and the region…” Okumaya devam et →

Arab States Trying to Overcome Disarray

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30 March 2015

On 26 March 2015, Saudi Arabia supported by the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar started air strikes against the Houthis who in addition to Yemen’s capital Sana had also captured the country’s second largest city Aden forcing the deposed but still struggling President Hadi to flee. It was reported that Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, Egypt and Pakistan were also taking part in the operations. According to the Egyptian state news agency, Egypt’s support could involve ground forces. The US and Turkey also announced their support. Okumaya devam et →

Turkish Foreign Policy in a Blind Alley

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25 March 2015

It was only a decade ago that Turkey, in recognition of its commitment to continuing political and economic reform, was given green light to start accession negotiations with the EU. Peoples of the region were following the process with envy. It was less than a decade ago that Turkey was playing a facilitator role between Syria and Israel. Our relations with neighbors were characterized by a determination to open new avenues of cooperation reflecting shared interest. It was in 2004 that a consortium led by a Turkish company won the contract to build the third terminal of the Cairo airport. The terminal was opened at the end of 2008 and doubled airport’s passenger capacity. In April 2009 Turkey became the first country to host President Obama on a bilateral visit. Okumaya devam et →

Ukraine: An Uncertain Cease-fire and Quasi Stability…

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20 March 2015

It has been more than a month since Presidents Putin, Poroshenko, Hollande and Chancellor Merkel issued the “Declaration of Minsk in Support of the Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements” and reiterated their belief that there is no alternative to a peaceful solution. The failure to declare an “immediate” cease-fire was not a good sign. President Poroshenko later revealed that the Ukrainian side had proposed this but the separatists insisted on a sixty hour lead-in period. It must have been clear to everyone around the table that what the separatists wanted was a window of opportunity to capture Debaltseve which they accomplished. Okumaya devam et →

Syria Conflict Enters Its Fifth Year

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17 March 2015

During the past four years of internal strife more than two hundred thousand Syrians lost their lives. Almost half the population is either internally displaced or living as refugees in neighboring countries. Homes and infrastructure are in ruins. “Islamic State of Iraq (ISI)” founded in October 2006 has turned into ISIL extending its reach to Syria. The UN has been a bystander. The region remains as divided as ever. The problem is no longer just the Syrian conflict but also proxy wars in Libya and Yemen. Nobody would admit a mistake but this is a disaster situation. Okumaya devam et →

Turkish-Israeli Relations: Deadlock Continues…

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13 March 2015
Israel will hold elections on 17 March and Turkey on 7 June 2015. So this may be a good time to look at the relationship.

Turkey and Israel enjoyed good relations for decades. For a long time, this was a negative element in the myriad of complexities which have historically characterized Arab countries’ ambivalent attitude towards Turkey. Gradually, however, they saw that Turkish-Israeli cooperation was not directed against their interests. Nevertheless, it gave them an excuse to criticize Turkey whenever the need arose.

With Justice and Development Party (JDP/AKP) in power in Turkey in 2002, an element of uncertainty was introduced into this relationship. Israel was concerned about JDP’s Islamic roots and the importance it attached to the Palestinian question. Ankara was not pleased with reports of Israel’s support to Iraqi Kurds following the US invasion. However, the relationship continued without a major disturbance until the “one minute” incident at the World Economic Forum in Davos on 30 January 2009 where Prime Minister Erdogan, in the presence of President Shimon Peres, denounced Israel for its attitude towards the Palestinians. This marked the beginning of the downturn. Okumaya devam et →