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The Pause

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October 18, 2019

Yesterday, Turkey and the US agreed that the Turkish side will pause Operation Peace Spring in order to allow the withdrawal of YPG from the safe zone within 120 hours. They also concurred that the operation would be halted upon completion of the withdrawal. The announcement of the agreement was followed immediately by a discussion in the US as to whose “victory” it was.

While this discussion is very much related to the political chaos in Washington, it also says something about the state of relations between Turkey and the US. Okumaya devam et →

Turkey’s Incursion in Syria

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October 14, 2019

Tomorrow, it will be a week since the launching of “Operation Peace Spring”. International reaction to the operation is negative to say the least. One can count on the fingers of one hand the number of countries which appear to support the incursion. Unfortunately, the operation has shown yet again that Turkish government’s much touted “precious loneliness” is nothing but self-defeating isolation. Okumaya devam et →

Sinking Deeper into the Syrian Quagmire

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October 8, 2019

Turkey’s participation in the regime change project in Syria was a huge foreign and security policy mistake. Yes, there were many other countries which took part but none of them shared a 910-kilometer border with Syria. The choice Turkey had to make did not call for profound strategic/political/economic/diplomatic analysis. Refraining from intervention was the dictate of simple logic: a good neighbor would lend a hose to extinguish a burning house next door. Unfortunately for Turkey, the ruling Justice and Development Party prioritized ideology over national interest. Okumaya devam et →

The Attack on Saudi Arabia’s Oil Facilities

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October 7, 2019

Following the September 14 attack on two of Saudi Arabia’s major oil facilities, country’s leadership blamed Iran. US Secretary of State Pompeo tweeted, “Tehran is behind nearly 100 attacks on Saudi Arabia while Rouhani and Zarif pretend to engage in diplomacy. Amid all the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply.  There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.” He later said this was an act of war. President Trump, after his “locked and loaded” tweet, said it looked like Iran was behind attack but he did not want to go to war. On September 20, Washington announced new sanctions on Iran’s national bank and the country’s sovereign wealth fund. Three days later the leaders of France, Germany and the UK issued a joint statement saying, “It is clear to us that Iran bears responsibility for this attack. There is no other plausible explanation. We support ongoing investigations to establish further details.” (*) Okumaya devam et →

Never a Day of Peace

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September 24, 2019

With the release by Iran of Stena Tempero on Monday, the tanker dispute between Iran and the UK reached its easily predictable conclusion. But the Middle East just can’t offer its peoples a chance to breathe a sigh of relief. Thus, the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities once again put the region and the world on edge. In assigning responsibility, Washington and Riyadh point towards Tehran, the latter denies all charges. Okumaya devam et →

Chaos Reigns as the 74th UNGA Opens

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September 16, 2019

The 74th regular Session of the UN General Assembly opens tomorrow in the wake of the drone attacks which knocked out more than half of Saudi Arabia’s oil output raising the risk of further regional confrontation. It will close on December 16 after thirteen weeks. World’s attention will focus on New York only during the week of “General Debate” which starts on September 24 because that is when world leaders are there to address the UNGA and hold their bilateral and group meetings. The rest will be business as usual. Okumaya devam et →

“The End” for the Tanker Crisis?

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September 12, 2019

Two days ago, the Guardian reported that White House national security adviser John Bolton “an ultra-hawk on foreign policy who under George Bush was a key architect of the invasion of Iraq in 2003” was fired by President Trump.

Iran’s rulers must have been pleasantly surprised. Okumaya devam et →

Iranian Diplomacy at Work

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August 27, 2019

Last Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif made an unexpected visit to Biarritz during the G7 summit. There he met with President Macron and had extensive talks with his French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian. He later shared a picture taken during the meeting with the French President saying “Iran’s active diplomacy in pursuit of constructive engagement continues. Road ahead is difficult. But worth trying.” The picture reflected the very cordial atmosphere of his meeting with the French President. Okumaya devam et →

Turkey’s Syria Labyrinth (2)

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August 19, 2019

In early August, American and Turkish military delegations met in Ankara to discuss plans to coordinate the establishment of a safe zone in northern Syria. A joint statement issued at the end of the talks said they agreed on the rapid implementation of initial measures to address Turkey’s security concerns; to stand-up a joint operations center in Turkey as soon as possible in order to coordinate and manage the establishment of the safe zone together; and, that the safe zone shall become a peace corridor, and every effort shall be made so that displaced Syrians can return to their country. Okumaya devam et →

History Will Judge Them Harshly

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August 6, 2019

In a couple of years, the world could well be speaking of a decade of conflict in Syria in which regional and external powers were involved either directly or through proxies.

The Islamic State remains a threat. Thousands and thousands of jihadist fighters not only from those directly involved but also from distant countries traveled to Syria to take part in the fighting. Their return home has now become a security challenge. Specialist monitors at the UN have warned that a recent pause in international terrorist violence may soon end, with the possibility of a new wave of attacks before the end of the year. What this portends for the clash or dialogue of civilizations remains to be seen. Okumaya devam et →