Etiket arşivi: Syrian conflict

And the Loser Is…

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March 7, 2018

The world is in disarray. The Arab Spring threw the Middle East in chaos. Then came the Ukraine conflict and Russia’s annexation of Crimea. As the Syrian conflict moved up on the international agenda the former receded. Despite on and off official statements on the unacceptability of Crimea’s annexation, everybody knows that there will be no going back. With a steadily rising China and a resurgent Russia “global realignment” has become a current topic. Now, moreover, there is talk about “Cold War II” and growing investment in military power. The rise of populism and authoritarianism has led to a pessimistic outlook regarding the future of democracy. The EU, a major global economic power, remains divided and ineffective as a foreign policy actor. Its public discourse on democracy and the rule of law has weakened. For a variety of reasons including migration, values are undergoing change. Okumaya devam et →

UNSC Resolution 2401(2018): What It Does Say/Not Say About Afrin

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February 28, 2018

UNSC Resolution 2401 (2018) of February 24 demands that all parties cease hostilities without delay for a durable humanitarian pause for at least 30 consecutive days throughout Syria. It calls upon all parties to immediately lift the sieges of populated areas and allow the delivery of humanitarian assistance. It also affirms that the cessation of hostilities shall not apply to military operations against terrorist organizations as designated by the Security Council.

In Ankara, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately welcomed the Resolution and said that uninterrupted access to humanitarian aid is a dictate of international law and Turkey, while continuing to extend humanitarian assistance to the Syrian people, will remain resolute in fighting terrorist organizations that threaten the territorial integrity and political unity of Syria. Okumaya devam et →

Turkey’s Syria Predicament

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February 22, 2018

In Syria, Turkey is running in a narrowing alley.

On the one hand, Secretary Tillerson recently said, “…we’re not going to act alone any longer. We’re not going to be U.S. doing one thing and Turkey doing another. We are going to act together from this point forward…” That remains to be seen. On the other hand, Turkey is quasi-partners with Russia and Iran in the Astana process. It is struggling to walk a fine line between Washington and Moscow. Relations between these two capitals, however, remain tense and confrontational. Through its measured cooperation with Ankara in Syria, Moscow is also targeting the further weakening of Turkey’s relations with the West.  Why shouldn’t it if the opportunity is generously offered? Moreover, the U.S. is engaged in a major effort to form an anti-Iran regional bloc to contain what it calls “Tehran’s malign activities”. Beyond saying that they are committed to Syria’s unity and territorial integrity, Washington on one side and Moscow and Tehran on the other hold conflicting views on Syria’s political transition. The former remains an adversary of President Assad while the latter are his principal supporters.  Back in October 2015, at the time of Russia’s intervention in Syria President Obama had said, “An attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire and it won’t work.” Perhaps, the Trump administration wishes to prove him right. Okumaya devam et →

“Normalizing” Turkish-American Relations

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February 18, 2018

In view of increasing tensions between Ankara and Washington, engaging in comprehensive, substantial and authoritative talks at sufficiently high level, preferably in Ankara to be of consequence, had become the dictate of diplomacy (1).  Last week, following other high-level talks, Secretary Tillerson visited Ankara and met with President Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu. Since there was nobody else in the room other than the three at the Presidential Palace last Thursday, there will be no proper record of this meeting and hopefully this will not lead to new misunderstandings. Okumaya devam et →

Who are the terrorists?

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February 5, 2018

Washington designated Hamas as a foreign terrorist organization in 1997. Last week the Department of State also designated its leader Ismail Haniyeh as a terrorist. Some in the Arab world were no doubt delighted whereas Turkish Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu strongly criticized the decision because the government regards Ismail Haniyeh a freedom fighter. The truth is such disagreements between nations are not uncommon. It all depends on countries’ perception of national interest as well as ideology. Okumaya devam et →

Turkish-American Relations Under Strain

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January 29, 2018

On May 16, 2017 Presidents Erdogan and Trump had talks in Washington. A few days before the visit I had said:

“…neither Ankara nor Washington can afford a too rocky relationship with too many ups and downs. They need one another and a reasonably steady relationship. So, the uneasy, unhappy alliance will continue.” (*)

I may have been over-optimistic. At present, the two capitals can’t agree even on the gist of a phone call between the presidents. Okumaya devam et →

Shifting Priorities in Syria

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January 22, 2018

On January 17, Secretary Tillerson delivered remarks at Stanford University. His topic was “The Way Forward for the United States Regarding Syria”. Next to him was Condoleezza Rice, National Security Adviser and later Secretary of State during the Bush administration. Mr. Tillerson said that Ms. Rice has been “a great source of help and inspiration” to him. Okumaya devam et →

Syrian Conflict: Time for Actions to Match Words

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November 27, 2017

On November 11, 2017, Presidents Putin and Trump met on the margins of the APEC conference in Vietnam. The joint-statement issued after the meeting said that there is no military solution to the Syrian conflict and that the ultimate political solution must be forged through the Geneva process pursuant to UNSCR 2254. The statement further said that the two leaders also took note of President Assad’s recent commitment to the Geneva process and constitutional reform and elections as called for under UNSCR 2254.

In the absence of any capacity for conflict resolution on the part of regional countries, US-Russia cooperation has always been the key to ending the Syrian conflict.  And, the major challenge on that path has been reconciling the strategic interests of the two, narrowing differences where possible, mindful of the gaps that will inevitably remain.  Okumaya devam et →

Turkey’s Syria Policy Coming Full Circle

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October 10, 2017

The Syrian conflict is in its seventh year and much has changed after the Russian intervention. Gone are the days of the Friends of Syria Group meetings and international coalitions targeting regime change. This Group was formed after Russia and China, in the light of the Libya experience, vetoed a UN Security Council resolution intended to pave the way for another Western intervention. The Group held its first meeting in Tunis on February 24, 2012. On April 1st, 2012, it met for the second time in Istanbul. Okumaya devam et →

Middle East’s Failures and External Meddling

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July 31, 2017

On April 4, 2017, toxic substance spread after Syrian warplanes dropped bombs on the town of Khan Sheikhoun in the rebel-held Idlib province. The West and Russia offered conflicting explanations for the tragedy. Three days later, US cruise missiles struck Al Sharyat airfield.

Five days later, President Trump’s fire-breathing Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley said, “In no way do we look at peace happening in that area with Iranian influence. In no way do we see peace in that area with Russia covering up for Assad. In no way do we see peace in that area with Assad as the head of the Syrian government.” Okumaya devam et →