February 24, 2025

Today marks the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The war continues but the diplomatic picture has changed dramatically. President Trump’s first month in office was frenetic, to say the least, and led to the fracturing of the US-Europe relationship as NATO and the EU were sidelined. The background to the conflict, and differing views on whether history could have been differently aside, Mr. Trump’s reversal of Washington’s policy has shocked allies. If his words were to be matched with action in the months ahead this would have lasting consequences for trust in the Trump White House, US foreign and security policy, relations with NATO allies, and relations with allies/partners in the Indo-Pacific.