Etiket arşivi: Putin

Looking Back at the Year 2023

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December 18, 2023

For most of the past year, the war in Ukraine and Washington’s strategic competition with China dominated the global agenda. Then came the October 7 Hamas onslaught against Israel creating yet another maelstrom of uncertainty for the Middle East and beyond, leading me to say in an earlier post that at present Washington and its European allies are neither at war nor in peace. Today, Western countries do not have troops on the ground fighting in Ukraine, but they are deeply involved in the conflict providing Kyiv with huge sums of military assistance and military advice. They are not at war with Hamas, but they are politically involved. In brief, one may say with some exaggeration, that today Washington and its European allies are fighting a one-and-a-half war.

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A Marathon with No Finishing Line?

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August 28, 2023

The following are a few takeaways from the American press, in chronological order, about battlefront developments in Ukraine.

On April 5, 2022, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin appeared before the House Armed Services Committee for the first time after Russia invaded Ukraine.

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A World of Confrontation

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August 14, 2023

The loss of life and devastation caused by this summer’s wildfires, floods, and drought unmistakably show that climate change is going to impact the world sooner and much more dramatically than generally expected. But understandably, many nations are also concerned about food security, and the suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

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The Russia-Africa Summit and Black Sea Grain

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July 31, 2023

The center of interest of the past week was the second Russia-Africa Summit which took place in St. Petersburg on July 27-28. The US and some of its allies were delighted that only 17 heads of African states attended this year’s meeting, less than half of the 43 heads of state that attended the first conference in 2019. This must have been a disappointment for Moscow. Nonetheless, during his bilateral meeting with President Putin South Africa’s President Ramaphosa said what is particularly pleasing is that Russia conducts its relationship with Africa at a strategic level, and it conducts it with a great deal of respect and recognition of the sovereignty of African states. Russia has continued to be supportive of Africa as it did in the past, even during the days of the Soviet Union. [i]

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The Black Sea Grain Deal, What Now?

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July 24, 2023

Heatwaves unseen in the past, wildfires, and huge floods have led some scientists to say that “The earth is in uncharted territory.” So is the world. The war in Ukraine grinds on. Washington’s strategic competition with China has led to an adversarial relationship between the world’s two leading powers. Democracy is in decline, the “judicial overhaul” proposed by Israel’s far-right government being a sad example. Problems of food security are no longer on the horizon but much closer. Migration has become a big challenge for well-to-do countries. There is not the slightest indication that there is an awareness of the need to confront global problems through international cooperation.

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The Black Sea Grain Initiative

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July 18, 2023

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on July 17, that the Black Sea agreements were effectively terminated on Monday as the part of the deal concerning Russia has not been fulfilled.

“The Black Sea agreements are no longer in effect. The deadline, as the Russian president said earlier, is July 17. Unfortunately, the part of the Black Sea agreement that concerns Russia has not yet been fulfilled. As a result, it has been terminated,” he said.

“As soon as the Russian part [of the deal] is fulfilled, the Russian side will immediately return to the implementation of this deal,” Peskov added. In other words, he did not say that the deal was off the agenda for good.

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Unrest in Moscow and Greater Uncertainty in Russia-West Relations

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July 3, 2023

Last week’s developments in Russia have been described as a “rebellion”, “uprising”, “coup”, and “mutiny”. The exception was China.

Neither President Xi Jinping nor senior officials of the Chinese government said a word about what was happening in Russia. Only the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson published in writing on June 25 her response to a question under the title “Wagner Group Incident”. She said, “This is Russia’s internal affair. As Russia’s friendly neighbor and comprehensive strategic partner of coordination for the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity.”  “Response to a question” in writing is the minimum governments say in public diplomacy.

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The Question of the Endgame in Ukraine

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June 18, 2023

In a recent Foreign Affairs article titled “Ukraine’s Winnable War, Why the West Should Help Kyiv Retake All Its Territory” Gideon Rose said:

“A common view of the war sees it as a military deadlock destined to end with a negotiated settlement far short of each side’s original goals. “Later this year, a stalemate is likely to emerge along a new line of contact,” argued the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass, and the political scientist Charles Kupchan in April, and at that point the United States should nudge Ukraine into recognizing that “pursuing a full military victory” would be unwise. “An end to the war that leaves Ukraine in full control over all its internationally recognized territory . . . remains a highly unlikely outcome,” asserted the political scientists Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe in January, and so Washington “could condition future military aid on a Ukrainian commitment to negotiations” involving territorial compromise.” The title of Mr. Charap’s Foreign Affairs article was “An Unwinnable War, Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine”.[i]

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The Limits of NATO’s Outreach

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April 24, 2023

On April 7, a batch of classified documents detailing American national security secrets from Ukraine to the Middle East to China surfaced on social media sites. It caused a shock in Washington. The leaked documents contained some Ukrainian war plans and also an alarming assessment of Ukraine’s air defense. But they also revealed that the Russian military is struggling in its war in Ukraine.

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President Xi Jinping’s Visit to Russia

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March 27, 2023

On June 14, 2021, Mr. Biden arrived in Brussels on his first trip to Europe as President. The Brussels Summit Communiqué issued by the NATO Heads of State and Government on that day broke new ground by mentioning China in a NATO public statement for the first time. It said, “China’s stated ambitions and assertive behavior present systemic challenges to the rules-based international order and areas relevant to Alliance security.”

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