Etiket arşivi: Middle East

The Question of the Endgame in Gaza (2)

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April 7, 2025

On January 18, 2025, following the Israeli government’s approval of the Gaza ceasefire, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a statement.  He notably declared that Israel retains the right to return to the war, if necessary, with the backing of the US. And in a broad assessment of the war against Hamas and Iran’s Axis of Resistance, he said:

“We eliminated Sinwar, Deif and Haniyeh. We eliminated Nasrallah and the entire Hezbollah leadership. We destroyed most of the weaponry of the Syrian military. We struck the Houthis in Yemen. We acted against Iran. Indeed, we struck all of these very hard, that is to say that we struck the entire Iranian axis very hard – and we are still active.

“Just as I promised you, we have changed the face of the Middle East.”

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The West in Turmoil

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February 17, 2025

President Trump’s barrage of proposals and statements by senior US officials on peace in the Middle East and Ukraine have surprised European partners, triggering confusion and uncertainty. Last Friday, Vice-President Vance chastised European leaders for failing to listen to their voters. When asked about European participation in the negotiations with Russia, US Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Kellogg said, “I think that’s not gonna happen.” Mr. Trump’s latest salvo, lost among others, was a nuclear deal with Russia and China to halve defense budgets.

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The Year 2024 in Review

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December 16, 2024

People aspire to democracy.  Regardless of their respect for fundamental rights and freedoms, and the rule of law, all regimes claim to be democratic in some form because it remains the ultimate source of legitimacy to govern. Sadly, the year 2024 was not an inspiring year for democracy.

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Foreshocks of a Bigger Middle East Earthquake?

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October 6, 2024

Tomorrow will mark the first anniversary of the Hamas the Hamas onslaught of October 7 that left 1,200 Israelis dead. Since then Israel has been fighting its longest war. With nearly 42,000 dead and almost 100,000 wounded, mostly women and children, the tremors of the Gaza earthquake continue. The Strip has been reduced to rubble and winter is approaching. Moreover, some 800 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank. With the beginning of IDF operations, Lebanon is now the major battleground. IDF’s recent airstrikes in Lebanon have so far killed over 1,400 people and displaced more than 1,200,000. And the risks of Lebanon turning into a second Gaza are growing if strikes were to continue at this pace.

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Türkiye’s Overlooked Gift to Israel

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July 8, 2024

President Bashar al-Assad met with Alexander Lavrentiev, President Putin’s special envoy in late June. During their discussion, President al-Assad reportedly expressed Syria’s openness to all initiatives aimed at improving Syrian-Turkish relations, provided Ankara respects Syria’s sovereignty and commits to combating all forms of terrorism and terrorist organizations. In the following days, President Erdoğan said that Türkiye has no interest in interfering in Syria’s domestic affairs and that the two countries could act in unity as in the past. Yesterday, he also said an invitation could soon be extended to President Assad to visit Türkiye. These statements and the acts of violence between Syrian refugees and the locals in some Turkish cities once again moved the question of “reconciliation with Syria” up Türkiye’s foreign policy agenda. Whether this is simply another distraction from our depressing economic problems or represents a genuine change of heart remains to be seen.

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Thirteenth Anniversary of the Syrian Uprising

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March 18, 2024

On March 15, the Governments of France, Germany, the UK, and the US issued a statement on the occasion of the 13th anniversary of the Syrian uprising.[i]

They said that on this day 13 years ago, “the Syrian people took to the streets in peaceful protest to demand their freedom and respect for human rights. The Assad regime met these protests with a ruthless campaign of oppression and atrocities that continues to this day. Since March 2011, the Syrian conflict has led to the deaths of more than 500,000 people and the forced displacement of more than half of the Syrian population. The coordinated efforts of the United Kingdom, United States of America, France, and Germany are focused on ending the suffering of the Syrian people.”

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The Middle East, World’s Region of Conflict

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February 12, 2024

US State Department’s Office of the Historian says that  Secretary of State Warren Christopher “eschewed confrontation in favor of negotiation with friend and foe alike”. Indeed, during his tenure as Secretary of State, from January 1993 to January 1997, he paid 200 visits to different countries including those in which he accompanied President Clinton. A hundred of those visits were to the Middle East: 5 to Saudi Arabia, 8 to Jordan, 8 to the Palestinian National Authority, 15 to Egypt, 29 to Syria, and 34 to Israel.

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The Question of the Endgame in Ukraine

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June 18, 2023

In a recent Foreign Affairs article titled “Ukraine’s Winnable War, Why the West Should Help Kyiv Retake All Its Territory” Gideon Rose said:

“A common view of the war sees it as a military deadlock destined to end with a negotiated settlement far short of each side’s original goals. “Later this year, a stalemate is likely to emerge along a new line of contact,” argued the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass, and the political scientist Charles Kupchan in April, and at that point the United States should nudge Ukraine into recognizing that “pursuing a full military victory” would be unwise. “An end to the war that leaves Ukraine in full control over all its internationally recognized territory . . . remains a highly unlikely outcome,” asserted the political scientists Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe in January, and so Washington “could condition future military aid on a Ukrainian commitment to negotiations” involving territorial compromise.” The title of Mr. Charap’s Foreign Affairs article was “An Unwinnable War, Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine”.[i]

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A Light Breeze of Change in the Middle East

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April 17, 2023

On March 10, 2023, the “Joint Trilateral Statement by the People’s Republic of China, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the Islamic Republic of Iran” was issued in Beijing. The Joint Statement started with a reference “to the noble initiative of President Xi Jinping and China’s support for developing good neighborly relations between the Kingdom and the Islamic Republic”. It then mentioned the gratitude of both parties to the Republic of Iraq and the Sultanate of Oman for hosting rounds of dialogue that took place between both sides during the years 2021-2022. The two sides also expressed their appreciation and gratitude to China for hosting and sponsoring the talks. Getting credit for peace-making in the Middle East is a noteworthy achievement.

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The Longest-serving …

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April 3, 2023

Winston Churchill, Margaret Thatcher, and Tony Blair served as Prime Ministers for approximately 9, 12, and 10 years respectively. Are they on top of the list of longest-serving British leaders? No. Sir Robert Walpole, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Leader of the House of Commons, in other words, the de facto first Prime Minister of Great Britain. He remained in power for almost 22 years but that was in the mid-18th century.

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