Obligations of the Refugee

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15 September 2015
The huge influx of refugees into Greece and from there into other EU countries has overshadowed all other international agenda items. Ukraine, Libya, Yemen and even battling the Islamic State are pushed into the background. All one hears is disagreement on proposed refugee quotas, reluctance of some to receive refugees as opposed to the generosity of a few. The legal terms “asylum seeker”, “refugee” and “migrant” are momentarily blurred. There is also discussion about home security, funds needed to accommodate large numbers of people which belong to another culture. Some suggest that they should stay home and fight for their own country rather than becoming a burden for others. Okumaya devam et →

Time for Russia to Demonstrate Her Peacemaking Capacity

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9 September 2015

Article 11 of the Minsk Agreement of February 12, 2015 reads as follows: “Carrying out constitutional reform in Ukraine with a new constitution entering into force by the end of 2015 providing for decentralization as a key element (including a reference to the specificities of certain areas in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, agreed with the representatives of these areas), as well as adopting permanent legislation on the special status of certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions … until the end of 2015.”

The Ukrainian Parliament is currently debating constitutional changes with a view to recognizing more autonomy to these two separatist regions. The move is opposed by some, in particular the rightist parties. There has been violence and accusations of provocation. A policeman has lost his life. The coalition government is under strain. The autonomy measure requires approval by 300 members of the 450 seat Parliament. Okumaya devam et →

High Time to End the Syria Conflict

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September 7, 2015

The key to resolving Europe’s refugee problem does not lie in Brussels. It lies in ending the Syria conflict. But even then, conditions prevailing in the wider Middle East will continue to compel people to seek a better future on the shores of Europe if they are lucky to get there. The unbearable suffering inflicted by the Syrian conflict has only raised numbers dramatically creating an immediate challenge for Europe. And once again, Chancellor Merkel’s leadership is making a difference. Okumaya devam et →

From Arab Spring to Europe’s Autumn of Refugees

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September 3, 2015

The West has misread and mismanaged the Arab Spring. The first glaring mistake was the Sarkozy-led Libya intervention (*). PM Cameron readily became his partner and President Obama felt that he had to join in.

In introducing Resolution 1973 (2011) on Libya Alain Juppé, then Minister for Foreign Affairs of France, said the world was experiencing “a wave of great revolutions that would change the course of history”, as people throughout North Africa and the Middle East were calling for “a breath of fresh air”, for freedom of expression and democracy. Such calls for democratic transition had echoed through Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco. Everyone had witnessed the events with great hope and he believed “this new Arab springtime is good news for all”. The changes required the international community not to “give lessons”, but to help the people of those countries build a new future. He said that the urgent need to protect the civilian population had led to the elaboration of the current resolution, which authorized the Arab League and those Member States wishing to do so to take all measures to protect areas that were being threatened by the Gaddafi regime. “We have very little time left — perhaps only a matter of hours,” he said, adding that each hour and day that passed “increased the weight” on the “international community’s shoulders.

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Colombia, France, Gabon, Lebanon, Nigeria, Portugal, South Africa, United Kingdom and United States voted for the resolution. Brazil, China, Germany, India and Russia abstained. So much for the “international community” myth… Okumaya devam et →

Syria’s Unsustainable Conflict

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31 August 2015
Efforts to find a political solution to the Syrian conflict appear to be gaining momentum. Whatever the outcome, recent diplomatic flurry can be attributed to the following:
• The completion of the Iran nuclear deal,
• ISIL’s holding its ground in Iraq and Syria despite the US-led air campaign,
• Admission by President Assad that he is facing a recruitment problem in the armed forces raising fears that the Islamic State (ISIL) may take over should the regime fall,
• Iraq’s continuing internal instability and failure to effectively combat ISIL,
• Growing ISIL- related global concern for home security,
• The humanitarian disaster in the Middle East and the prospect of an endless influx of refugees into Europe. Okumaya devam et →

Turkey: Elections Again

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27 August 2015

The Turkish political scene looks complicated, confusing. Analysts, columnists, pollsters are extremely busy. I believe that the current picture also offers a unique opportunity for analytical brevity.

Turkey held parliamentary elections on June 7, 2015. In the three preceding elections (2002, 2007, 2011) the electorate had given the governing Justice and Development Party (JDP) a parliamentary majority. This time the voters denied them the privilege because they wanted pull in the reins. Their unmistakable message to the JDP was the following:
“You are getting authoritarian and addicted to power. We now want you to share power with another party, preferably with the main opposition Republican People’s Party (RPP). We believe that such a grand coalition can make sure that Turkey remains a parliamentary democracy and upholds national interest rather than ideology in foreign policy.” Okumaya devam et →

Termination of the Mistral Contract

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17 August 2015

The French-Russian deal for the sale of two Mistral class amphibious assault ships was announced by President Sarkozy on December 24, 2010 and signed in his presence by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin and French Defense Minister Alain Juppé on January 25, 2011. This was the largest defense contract concluded between a NATO member and Russia.

The date chosen to announce the deal could not have been a coincidence. It was Christmas Eve and President Sarkozy must have thought that a 1.2 billion euro contract would be welcome news to the French public and contribute to his standing as a promoter of French economic interests.

The communiqué issued by the Elysée said that Presidents Sarkozy and Medvedev were pleased with this unprecedented cooperation which reflected the two countries’ readiness and ability to develop substantial partnerships in all fields including defense and security. Okumaya devam et →

2013 German Federal Election – 2015 Turkish Parliamentary Election

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12 August 2015

The last German federal election was held on Sunday, September 22, 2013. The Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) led by Chancellor Merkel won nearly 42% of the vote and nearly 50% of the seats in the Bundestag (just five short of majority). However, their coalition partner Free Democrats (FDP), failed to meet the 5% vote threshold. Thus, the CDU/CSU and the main opposition party Social Democrats (SPD) started talks for a grand coalition. After five weeks of intense negotiations they reached agreement. Three party leaders signed a 185-page document on policies to be followed by the new government. The SPD then submitted this document to a vote by its members who approved it. On December 17, the Bundestag elected Angela Merkel as Chancellor and the new government was sworn in. In other words, the political process took nearly three months. Okumaya devam et →

The Middle East: More Confusing Than Ever…

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10 August 2015

Contrary to initial expectations the Arab Spring brought further chaos to a region already troubled by unresolved conflicts; beset by internal political, economic and social problems. But widening sectarian clashes and the emergence of ISIL have added new dimensions to a tradition of proxy wars, secret dealings and shifting alliances. Okumaya devam et →

Turkey’s Syria Conundrum

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3 August 2015

A country’s foreign policy is shaped by its identity, sense of belonging, world outlook and geographic location. This last one is a constant; others are subject to evolution, change and definition/redefinition within the limits of reason. The task of governments is to merge these with national power into policies designed to maximize national interest. It is imperative even for major countries that the conformity of these policies to international law and rules of good conduct can be reasonably defended. All of this requires realism, calm, poise, prudence, consistency and determination. A sound foreign policy’s worst enemies are rashness and bravado. Okumaya devam et →