Washington’s Troubled Relations with Its Middle East Partners

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January 25, 2016

On January 22, 2016 Secretary Kerry addressed the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. This is how he started off his remarks on the Iran nuclear deal:
“… It wasn’t so long ago that … Iran was only months away from having enough weapons-grade uranium to build 10 to 12 bombs. We were on the cusp of confrontation – believe me. I can’t tell you how many leaders, when I traveled through certain areas, said, ‘You have to bomb it. That’s the way you will solve this problem.” He then gave a brief account of what had been achieved through the JCPOA and concluded by saying, “My friends, the region is safer. The world is safer.” Okumaya devam et →

Iran Nuclear Deal: Implementation Day

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January 19, 2016

During the weeks preceding “implementation day” for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), world’s attention focused once again on the Iran nuclear deal. Different aspects of the agreement negotiated between Iran and the “P5+1” or “the US and five other nations” were re-examined. Some analysts saw the deal as a landmark development and expressed optimism that it could end three decades of hostility between Tehran and Washington and usher in an era of cooperation in Middle East conflicts. Others appeared more reserved. And, some continued to reject it as a “bad deal”. Two observations can be made with regard to this debate:

Firstly, the “five other nations” referred to are China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and Germany. In other words, Iran’s counterparts at the table were the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, world’s governing body plus Germany, EU’s “primus inter pares”. This in itself is a measure of the achievement which Iranian President Hassan Rouhani described as a “golden page” in his country’s history opening new windows for Iran’s engagement with the world. Okumaya devam et →

Syria Talks Approaching

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January 14, 2016

On December 18, 2015 the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2254 approving the road map which had emerged from International Syria Support Group’s (ISSG) two Vienna meetings. A week later, Staffan de Mistura, UN’S Special Envoy for Syria, set the target date of January 25 to start talks in Geneva. And, at the very end of the year, Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi went to Ramadi to celebrate its liberation from ISIL.

Two weeks later, the regional mood is still not one of optimism. Okumaya devam et →

When Better Is the Enemy of Good

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January 8, 2016

For a good number of years drafting a new constitution has been on Turkey’s agenda. The 1982 Constitution has been amended numerous times but our political parties still regard it as the legacy of a military coup and wish to write a new one. For some at least, this appears to be a knee-jerk response rather than a reasoned position. The amended Constitution may indeed not be the perfect one, but it has not prevented democratic reform. The following are excerpts from the Presidency Conclusions of EU’s December 16-17, 2004 Brussels summit when Turkey was given a date for the launching of accession negotiations: Okumaya devam et →

The Riyadh-Tehran Rupture

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January 5, 2016

A year ago, some Middle East analysts referred to Saudi Arabia’s new leadership as a cadre of youthful, dynamic royals and technocrats. They said that Saudi Arabia is uniquely positioned to rise above the fray of the past decade and begin bridging the considerable gaps dividing the main Sunni nations. They thought that the changes appeared to deepen Saudi Arabia’s links with the United States and make it a more reliable security partner. A year later, the Saudi-led coalition is still battling Yemen’s Houthis with no end in sight. It has recently announced that it will no longer observe the ceasefire agreed last December. More importantly, Riyadh has cut diplomatic relations with Iran. Surely, the setting ablaze of the Saudi Embassy in Tehran constituted a flagrant violation of international law but there will be consequences. Okumaya devam et →

2015 in Retrospect

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December 28, 2015

Arab Spring turmoil has continued to dominate world’s agenda with the war in Syria, ISIL terrorism and the refugee problem as top items. The confrontation over Ukraine has somewhat receded confirming predictions of a frozen conflict. The only good news in 2015 were the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The rising cost of its involvement in Syria aside, this puts Tehran on top of the very short list of winners in 2015. Okumaya devam et →

UN Security Council Resolutions 2253 and 2254

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December 21, 2015

On December 17, 2015 the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2253 (*) to suppress the financing of terrorism. The 28-page resolution covers asset freeze, travel ban, arms embargo and listing criteria for ISIL, Al-Qaida and “associated individuals, groups, undertaking and entities”. Through the Resolution, the Security Council reiterated the obligation of States to ensure that their nationals and persons in their territory deny economic resources to those actors, including direct and indirect trade in oil and refined oil products, modular refineries and related material. It reaffirmed that those responsible for committing, organizing or supporting terrorist acts must be held accountable.

And, on December 18, the Security Council adopted, again unanimously, Resolution 2254 (**) approving the roadmap which had emerged from International Syria Support Group’s (ISSG) Vienna meetings of October 30 and November 14. Okumaya devam et →

Downing of Russian Su-24: The NATO Dimension

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Co-authored with Yusuf Buluç (*)

December 16, 2015

Downing of Russia’s Su-24 bomber on November 24, 2015 has led to tensions between Ankara and Moscow putting decades-long cooperation in danger.

Before the incident, a Russian military delegation headed by Major General Dronov, Deputy Commander of the Russian Air Forces visited Ankara on 15 October 2015. According to the statement issued by Turkey’s General Staff, the purpose of the visit was to clarify the reasons underlying the violations of Turkish airspace on 3-4 October and the measures taken to prevent their recurrence. Apparently, the Russian side also apologized and that was the end of it. Why the two sides did not conclude a “de-confliction agreement”, like Russia and the US had done, remains an open question. Yes, Russian and American military aircraft are engaged in combat operations over Syria and Turkey is not, but more could and should have been done. Okumaya devam et →

Turkey Needs to Build Trust

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December 14, 2015
In a world of contradictions foreign policy is no exception. The West, for example, always takes care to wave the democracy flag but can become oblivious to democratic values in its dealings with Middle East tyrannies. Russia constantly underlines that it is up to the people of Syria to determine their own future but becomes less generous when the question becomes the people of Ukraine determining their future. Nevertheless, they all somehow try to make their contradictions less conspicuous; devise ways and means to justify them; draw attention to what is doable and what is not and thus bridge the gap between words and deeds. Turkey understandably cannot be the exception to the rule. But discrepancies between what it says from one day to the next and between what it says and does are turning Ankara into an “unpredictable partner” at best. Okumaya devam et →

Moment of Truth for Turkey’s Syria Policy

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December 3, 2015

On November 27, 2015 the Wall Street Journal reported that the Obama administration was pressing Turkey to deploy thousands of additional troops along its border with Syria to cordon off a 60-mile stretch of frontier that U.S. officials said was being used by the Islamic State fighters in and out of the war zone. This coincided with Turkish press reports that convoys of heavy weaponry were heading towards the south.

On November 30 President Putin held a press conference in Paris at the end of the UN Conference on Climate Change. He was extremely critical of Turkey: Okumaya devam et →