The Gulf Crisis and Turkey

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June 7, 2017
On June 5, 2017 Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Yemen’s UN-backed government, the eastern government of divided Libya and the Maldives severed diplomatic relations with Qatar over allegations of support for terrorism. In addition, they closed all land, sea and aviation links.
According to a statement attributed to an official source, the Saudi Press Agency reported that the Kingdom has taken this decision, Okumaya devam et →

Turkey Needs a Serious Foreign Policy Review

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May 31, 2017

Turkey’s traditional foreign policy stood on pillars. Our relations with the United States and the European Union constituted the first two. A third one was our relations with our neighbors and the region. Prominently among those was Russia. Since the world is in a constant process of transformation Turkey was also searching for new pillars to add to the existing ones. Relations with China, India and other emerging powers offered new prospects.  Since they did not constitute alternatives to one another, strengthening each and every one of these pillars was a dictate of Turkey’s interests.

Those pillars have undergone serious damage in recent years for two reasons: our leaving the path of democratic reform and our involvement in the Syrian conflict. Okumaya devam et →

President Trump and Israeli-Palestinian Peace

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May 24, 2017

President Trump has now completed the Middle East leg of his first trip abroad. Though not as important as what he discussed with leaders in Saudi Arabia and Israel, images from his visits were also interesting. For example, especially after his visit to Riyadh, millions and millions of people watching him on their television screens must have been struck with the plain, unadorned residences of both President Rivlin and PM Netanyahu in Jerusalem. Okumaya devam et →

Presidents Obama, Trump and the Middle East: Choice of Capitals, Messages and Audiences

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May 22, 2017

President Obama arrived in Turkey in April 2009 after attending a G20 summit in London, a NATO summit in Strasbourg and an EU summit in Prague. This was his first overseas trip as President.

The following paragraph from the speech he delivered before the Turkish Grand National Assembly on April 6, 2009 reflected the purpose of the visit:

“This morning I had the great privilege of visiting the tomb of your extraordinary founder of your republic. And I was deeply impressed by this beautiful memorial to a man who did so much to shape the course of history. But it is also clear that the greatest monument to Atatürk’s life is not something that can be cast in stone and marble. His greatest legacy is Turkey’s strong, vibrant, secular democracy, and that is the work this assembly carries on today…” Okumaya devam et →

Turkey-US Relations: The Uneasy Alliance to Continue

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May 12, 2017

In his address to the United Nations General Assembly on September 24, 2013 President Obama had said:

“… And our approach to Egypt reflects a larger point:  The United States will at times work with governments that do not meet, at least in our view, the highest international expectations, but who work with us on our core interests.  Nevertheless, we will not stop asserting principles that are consistent with our ideals, whether that means opposing the use of violence as a means of suppressing dissent, or supporting the principles embodied in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights…”

President Trump appears determined to challenge and reverse his predecessor’s policies on a wide range of issues. By all indications, however, the foregoing will be an exception with at least the public dimension, if not more, of the “asserting principles” part being dropped. Okumaya devam et →

No Military Solution to Middle East’s Turmoil

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April 25, 2017

On April 4, toxic substance spread after Syrian warplanes dropped bombs on the town of Khan Sheikhoun in the rebel-held Idlib province. Scores of people lost their lives. The West and Russia offered conflicting explanations for the tragedy. Three days later, US cruise missiles struck Al Sharyat airfield.

On April 13, in a second display of military power, the US dropped the “mother of all bombs” on caves used by Islamic State affiliates in eastern Afghanistan. Reportedly, dozens of militants were killed. A confident President Trump said that the bombing was “another very, very successful mission.” General Nicholson, the commander of US forces in Afghanistan, said in a statement that the bomb (GBU-43/B) was the “right munition” to use against the Islamic State in Khorosan. Some observers drew attention to the “warning to North Korean” dimension of the bombing. Okumaya devam et →

Turkey: A Nation Divided

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April 17, 2017

Turkey’s experience with democracy has witnessed many ups and downs. Sometimes, it was democratically elected governments overstepping their powers, at other times it was the failure of politicians to find common ground leading to military coups or interventions. Lastly, it was a coup attempt by an insidious organization which had infiltrated state institutions including the military. In all these cases, the failure of our democracy was attributed to institutions, persons or both.  Okumaya devam et →

Syrian Conflict: State of Tension and Confusion

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April 13, 2017

According to the Trump administration, on April 4, toxic substance spread after Syrian warplanes dropped bombs on the town of Khan Sheikhoun in the rebel-held Idlib province. Scores of people lost their lives. Russia offered another explanation. It said that Syrian warplanes had struck an insurgent storehouse containing toxic substances to be used in chemical weapons. The next day, Turkey’s Health Ministry issued a statement saying that “according to the results of the first analysis, there were findings suggesting that the patients were exposed to chemical substance (sarin)”. The UN Security Council failed to agree on a resolution which would have paved the way for a full investigation. And on April 7, US cruise missiles struck Al Sharyat airfield. The Trump administration called the operation an “overwhelming success”. Russian military called the effectiveness of the strikes “extremely low”. Okumaya devam et →

Raqqa, Mosul and Secretary Tillerson’s Visit to Ankara

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March 31, 2017

The third Astana meeting on Syria ended two weeks ago, without any progress after the opposition boycotted the meeting. Russia, Turkey and Iran, guarantors of the ceasefire regime, issued a joint statement in which they underlined the interlinkage between the Geneva and Astana processes and expressed their support for the fifth round of Geneva talks to start on March 23, 2017. They also said that the fourth round of the Astana talks would be held on May 3-4 with preliminary expert consultations on April 18-19, in Tehran.

The Geneva talks started as scheduled on March 23. At the end of the day, UN Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura said that he was expecting neither breakthroughs nor breakdowns. He added that agreement on the agenda was in itself a mark of progress. In brief, rounds of talks are following one another in Astana and Geneva but making little headway. Okumaya devam et →

Moving Toward Unsplendid Isolation

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March 27, 2017

Turkish government’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy was nothing but a public relations stunt. Its “regime change Syria” project has turned into a major foreign and security policy disaster, as predicted.

At present, Ankara’s relations with Washington are under clouds of uncertainty because of differences over Fethullah Gülen’s extradition and YPG’s role in combating ISIS. Secretary Tillerson, addressing the Ministerial Plenary for the Global Coalition Working to Defeat ISIS on March 22, said: “Turkey has pushed ISIS off the Turkey-Syria border through Operation Euphrates Shield. This entire border is now inaccessible to ISIS, and we will ensure that it stays that way…”   What that means exactly will no doubt be high on the agenda of the talks Secretary Tillerson will have in Ankara at the end of the month. Criticism directed by Ankara at the gone Obama administration continues and is probably seen as an indirect way of sending messages to its successor. Okumaya devam et →