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The Loser of the Election is President Biden

November 11, 2024

For months the West anxiously watched the US presidential campaign. “Anxiously” because the world is in turmoil with the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Lebanon taking their toll, and there is a lack of leadership. The quality of the campaign, particularly Mr. Trump’s language, his distortion of facts, and the worries about political violence if he were to lose was disappointing.

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Gaza’s Destruction Continues

October 31, 2024

On October 1, Iran fired 200 missiles at Israel. There was no clarity regarding the full scope of the damage to Israeli military bases. It was generally agreed that Iran was “more successful” in evading Israel’s defenses than in April when Iran had launched a barrage of missiles and drones targeting Israel nearly two weeks after the deadly strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria.

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The BRICS Summit and Türkiye

October 28, 2024

BRICS currently comprises ten nations: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE. It represents about half of the world’s population. According to estimates, it now accounts for 37.3 % of the world’s GDP. It owns 44.35% of the world’s oil reserves.

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Ukraine’s Victory Plan

October 21, 2024

On September 26, 2024, Presidents Biden and Zelensky met in Washington. The latter presented to his host, Ukraine’s plan to achieve “victory over Russia” and President Biden reaffirmed his determination to provide Kyiv with the support it needs to win. The same day, he also directed the Department of Defense to allocate all of its remaining security assistance funding that had been appropriated for Ukraine by the end of his term in office.[i]

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The West in Disarray

October 14, 2024

The November 5, US presidential election is only three weeks away. On January 20, 2025, the new US president will take office. Thus there will be a six-week period of transition. Then the new president will form her/his government and get a closer look at the challenges ahead. In brief, the new US administration’s fully taking the reins will take time.

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Foreshocks of a Bigger Middle East Earthquake?

October 6, 2024

Tomorrow will mark the first anniversary of the Hamas the Hamas onslaught of October 7 that left 1,200 Israelis dead. Since then Israel has been fighting its longest war. With nearly 42,000 dead and almost 100,000 wounded, mostly women and children, the tremors of the Gaza earthquake continue. The Strip has been reduced to rubble and winter is approaching. Moreover, some 800 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank. With the beginning of IDF operations, Lebanon is now the major battleground. IDF’s recent airstrikes in Lebanon have so far killed over 1,400 people and displaced more than 1,200,000. And the risks of Lebanon turning into a second Gaza are growing if strikes were to continue at this pace.

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Türkiye Must Have a Foreign Policy Review

October 3, 2024

Ankara’s foreign policy of the past fifteen years is a story of extreme rhetoric, defiance, and inconsistencies. Every country can make reasonable adjustments to its foreign policy. But if U-turns become a pattern, this signals a lack of long-term foresight. A sound foreign policy follows a steady course like a big ship, it does not constantly change direction like a runabout.

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Escalation in the Middle East

September 30, 2024

Last week, world leaders, though not all, gathered in New York to engage in the annual high-level General Assembly debate to “explore solutions to intertwined global challenges to advance peace, security, and sustainable development” to use the UN language. Yet, nobody expected them to do much about the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

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Blasts in Lebanon

September 20, 2024

At least 37 people were killed and thousands more injured, many seriously, when pagers and walkie-talkies, used by Hezbollah, exploded across Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement in the operation. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant complimented the Israeli Intelligence Agency, the Mossad, for “great achievements”, but stopped short of claiming responsibility for the two days of attacks in Lebanon. However, American and other countries’ officials have reportedly said that Israel was responsible for the explosions.

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Türkiye’s Support for Ukraine and Membership in BRICS

September 16, 2024

The year 2023 was a tough one for Ukraine. Its spring offensive failed. The US military aid started coming after months of delay. Mobilization became unpopular in Ukrainian society. In brief, it became increasingly clear that a Ukrainian victory against Russia was not in the cards.

Some Western observers presented the Ukrainian incursion into the Russian province of Kursk in early August 2024 as an important military achievement. In an article on September 5, Anatol Lieven said that while legally and morally justified, the attack has failed in all its objectives.[i] In brief, the battlefield developments of the past two years have not supported President Zelensky’s expectations of a future victory over Russia.

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