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Ukraine Update

September 25, 2023

The 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) opened on September 5, 2023, and the “High-Level Week” took place on September 18-22. Some important leaders, including those of China, Russia, France, and the UK, the four permanent members of the UN Security Council, did not travel to New York. Not surprising given the UN’s inability to effectively deal with global challenges.

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Western Military Interventions in the Middle East

September 18, 2023

The Middle East has witnessed many Western military interventions since the end of the First World War. Two recent ones are particularly significant in drawing lessons for the future.

The Iraq-Iran War started on September 22, 1980. The war lasted eight years. In 1990 Saddam Hussein made his biggest mistake by ordering the invasion of Kuwait. The US-led military campaign forced Iraq to withdraw. The people of Iraq suffered for decades under sanctions. On March 20, 2003, the US joined by the UK and several coalition allies invaded Iraq. The invasion which was not sanctioned by the UN not only led to the collapse of the Ba’athist government but the Iraqi state as well.

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Growing Resistance to a New Cold War

September 11, 2023

The major headline of the past week was the agreement of G20 countries on the New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration. The Western media generally reported that the leaders underscored that all states must act in a manner consistent with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter in its entirety; they must refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition against the territorial integrity and sovereignty or political independence of any state; and that the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible. However, there was some disappointment because the Declaration avoided any mention of Russia. The Bali G20 Leaders’ Declaration of 15-16 November 2022, mentioned Russia by name whereas the New Delhi Declaration only mentions the fundamental principles of the UN Charter, although who the addressee is amply clear.[i]

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Black Sea Grain and Russian-Turkish Relations

September 6, 2023

During the past few weeks, many countries hoped that Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan’s and President Erdoğan’s visits to Russia would be a step toward reviving the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Unfortunately, this did not happen. During the joint press conference after the talks in Sochi, President Putin once again stressed that the Black Sea Grain Initiative was suspended because the Western countries had blocked the part of the deal that ensured Russian agricultural products access to global markets. He also said that of the 32.8 million tons of cargo exported from Ukraine, over 70 percent went to the wealthy countries, primarily to the EU, whereas the share of countries in real need of food aid accounted for only 3 percent, less than one million tons.

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A Marathon with No Finishing Line?

August 28, 2023

The following are a few takeaways from the American press, in chronological order, about battlefront developments in Ukraine.

On April 5, 2022, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin appeared before the House Armed Services Committee for the first time after Russia invaded Ukraine.

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Time to Revive the Grain Deal is Narrowing

August 21, 2023

“The Initiative on the Safe Transportation of Grain and Foodstuffs from Ukrainian Ports”, shortly referred to as the “Black Sea Grain Initiative” was signed in Istanbul on July 22, 2022, by Türkiye, Russia, and Ukraine.[i]

The second document signed in Istanbul on the same day was the “Memorandum of Understanding between the Russian Federation and the Secretariat of the United Nations on promoting Russian food products and fertilizers to the world markets.” [ii]

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A World of Confrontation

August 14, 2023

The loss of life and devastation caused by this summer’s wildfires, floods, and drought unmistakably show that climate change is going to impact the world sooner and much more dramatically than generally expected. But understandably, many nations are also concerned about food security, and the suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

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The Battle for the Global South

August 7, 2023

Since the invasion of Ukraine, the US State Department has probably been experiencing its busiest time ever with its senior diplomats crisscrossing the world from Asia to Africa, South America to the Far East in a campaign not only to isolate Russia but also to contain China. Western countries are mostly united in condemning Moscow, promising to support Ukraine for as long as necessary, saying “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine”, and calling for Russia to be held accountable for war crimes but they still have no diplomatic initiative to reveal.

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The Russia-Africa Summit and Black Sea Grain

July 31, 2023

The center of interest of the past week was the second Russia-Africa Summit which took place in St. Petersburg on July 27-28. The US and some of its allies were delighted that only 17 heads of African states attended this year’s meeting, less than half of the 43 heads of state that attended the first conference in 2019. This must have been a disappointment for Moscow. Nonetheless, during his bilateral meeting with President Putin South Africa’s President Ramaphosa said what is particularly pleasing is that Russia conducts its relationship with Africa at a strategic level, and it conducts it with a great deal of respect and recognition of the sovereignty of African states. Russia has continued to be supportive of Africa as it did in the past, even during the days of the Soviet Union. [i]

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The Black Sea Grain Deal, What Now?

July 24, 2023

Heatwaves unseen in the past, wildfires, and huge floods have led some scientists to say that “The earth is in uncharted territory.” So is the world. The war in Ukraine grinds on. Washington’s strategic competition with China has led to an adversarial relationship between the world’s two leading powers. Democracy is in decline, the “judicial overhaul” proposed by Israel’s far-right government being a sad example. Problems of food security are no longer on the horizon but much closer. Migration has become a big challenge for well-to-do countries. There is not the slightest indication that there is an awareness of the need to confront global problems through international cooperation.

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