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The Summit on Peace in Ukraine  

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June 18, 2024

The Summit, organized by Switzerland, took place at Bürgenstock on June 15-16, 2024. The task of the meeting was to develop a common understanding of a path towards a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. In the absence of Russia and China expectations from the summit were modest. No one anticipated a debate on what a postwar settlement would look like or Ukraine’s hopes of joining NATO. Nonetheless, attendance was high. After all, countries across the globe are interested in peace in Ukraine regardless of their vision of the endgame.

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The War in Gaza to Continue

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June 17, 2024

On May 31, President Biden announced that Israel has offered a comprehensive new proposal. He described the three-phase Israeli plan as a roadmap to an enduring ceasefire and the release of all hostages. He added that the proposal had been transmitted by Qatar to Hamas.[i]

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The Arduous Path to Peace in Ukraine

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June 10, 2024

The past year has been a tough one for Ukraine. Its 2023 spring offensive failed. US military aid started coming after months of delay. Mobilization became unpopular in Ukrainian society. Children of Ukrainian migrants in Europe are experiencing schooling difficulties. By contrast, Russia has regained momentum.

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Revisiting the Past

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June 3, 2024

Last week witnessed some confusion over the future of the war in Gaza and the prospects for peace. Looking at what has transpired since the October 7 Hamas attack, this was no surprise. On Friday, President Biden announced that after intensive diplomacy carried out by his team and his many conversations with leaders of Israel, Qatar, Egypt, and other Middle Eastern countries, Israel has offered a comprehensive new proposal, a roadmap to an enduring ceasefire, and the release of all hostages.

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Israel’s Time of Troubles

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May 27, 2024

The Hamas onslaught of October 7 has been described by many as a “shock” for Israel. In terms of its violence, indeed it was a shock, but considering the misery, subjugation, and deprivation in Gaza, next to one of the world’s most prosperous and advanced countries, and growing international apathy toward the Palestinian question, a local outburst was only to be expected. Recently, Professor John Mearsheimer, a prominent critic of US foreign policy, called the situation in Gaza, “apartheid”.[i] And no wonder that the case against Israel was brought to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) by South Africa whose President Cyril Ramaphosa said that as a people who once tasted the bitter fruits of dispossession, discrimination, racism, and state-sponsored violence, they are clear that they will stand on the right side of history.

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Growing Concerns Over Israel’s Rafah Offensive

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May 20, 2022

Until yesterday, international attention was focused on the pending Israeli offensive on Rafah and the domestic political challenges facing Prime Minister Netanyahu. On Sunday, however,  Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other officials died in a helicopter crash on their way back home from Azerbaijan. How this tragedy would impact the extremely complicated Middle East picture remains to be seen.

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“Yumuşama” in Türkiye

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May 13, 2024

During the past two weeks, the word “yumuşama” was widely used to describe “political change” in Türkiye. Though I know what some matching words are in English, I nonetheless looked up in the dictionary for alternatives. Among those were “moderation”, “softening”, “mellowing”, “relentment”, and “détente”. Being a retired diplomat, I was tempted at first to go inadvertently for “détente”. Inadvertently because the “policy of détente” refers to the time in the 1960s-1970s when the two superpowers, the USSR and the US eased tension and tried to cooperate to avoid conflict. It was a process.

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What After the Rafah Offensive?

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May 6, 2024

The UAE was the first Arab country to sign the Abraham Accords in 2020 normalizing relations with Israel. Later Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco followed suit. Washington then started encouraging Saudi Arabia to join the group. In July 2022,  Riyadh announced that it would open its airspace to all airlines, paving the way for more overflights to and from Israel. The normalization of Israel-Saudi Arabia relations appeared close. What led these countries to seek better relations with Israel was their desire to benefit from its advanced technological achievements in multiple fields and broaden the front against Iran and its Axis of Resistance. After all, Islamic solidarity is a myth, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation is a non-entity. Nonetheless, while signing the Accords they did not fail to pay lip service to the Palestinian cause. In reality, the question of Palestine was swept under the carpet for dynastic/national interest.

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The Incremental Cost of the Wars in Ukraine and Gaza

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April 30, 2024

The world remains focused on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the Iran-Israel confrontation. The former defines relations between Russia and the West and unfortunately, there is no path yet for a negotiated solution. The latter two are more of a challenge for the US, with Russia and China watching on the sidelines. How the Gaza conflict would evolve is likely to impact Washington’s standing in the world. In brief, these are not great times for global powers to stand up together against other global threats such as ISIS, a radical group that has proved its outreach on numerous occasions.

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The Question of the Endgame in Ukraine

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April 22, 2024

On February 26, 2024, President Macron, after hosting a meeting of 25 European leaders in Paris, said that there was “no consensus” on committing ground troops to the conflict in Ukraine but added, “Nothing should be excluded. We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war.” In early March, during a visit to the Czech Republic, Mr. Macron urged Ukraine’s allies not to be “cowards” in supporting its fight against the Russian invasion. However, Germany, the UK, Spain, Poland, and Czechia immediately ruled out any suggestion that they might commit ground troops to Ukraine. So did Washington.

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