March 16, 2026

European leaders met in Berlin on August 12, 2025, two days before the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska. They issued a statement affirming that the people of Ukraine must have the freedom to decide their future and that the path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine. Hungary chose not to associate itself with the statement.

On August 15, in Alaska, President Trump was narrowly focused on peace in Ukraine. President Putin had broader objectives, such as increasing Western pressure on Kyiv for a peace deal that would allow him to end the war with a “victory”, reappear on the Western stage as a major interlocutor, take the first step toward a reset in relations with Washington, and perhaps even restore trade and energy cooperation with the West. Many agreed that the summit was a tactical win for Putin.

Excluded from the Alaska summit, President Macron, Prime Minister Meloni, Chancellor Merz, Prime Minister Starmer, President Stubb, Prime Minister Tusk, President Costa, and President von der Leyen issued a statement the next day. It said:

“We are clear that Ukraine must have ironclad security guarantees to effectively defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. We welcome President Trump’s statement that the US is prepared to give security guarantees. The Coalition of the Willing is ready to play an active role. No limitations should be placed on Ukraine’s armed forces or on its cooperation with third countries. Russia cannot have a veto against Ukraine‘s pathway to the EU and NATO.

“It will be up to Ukraine to make decisions on its territory. International borders must not be changed by force.” (emphasis added)

In response, Trump, through messages to Kyiv and the EU leaders in public statements,  set the agenda for the follow-up to the summit: the acceptance of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, “territorial swaps”, which essentially meant ceding more territory to Russia, and “strong security guarantees”, but no membership in NATO.     

Nothing has changed since then. To put it plainly, the war is in Europe; European countries are not at the negotiation table, but Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are. And President Trump patronizingly says that those reluctant European countries will eventually join his so-called “Board of Peace”.

With the US-Israeli attack on Iran, some members of the so-called “Board” must regret their haste in joining it. Trump had announced the formation of the Board on January 15, 2026. Only six weeks later, the US and Israel attacked Iran. Soon, one would see whether the Board was created with essentially Iran in mind, and not Gaza.

As the US-Israeli attack on Iran has confirmed yet again, what counts for the unpredictable US President and his Gang of Three is military power.[i] However, as the war has shown, that might not be enough.  Trump, while calling on other countries, including Britain, France, South Korea, and China, to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz to ensure that oil tankers could pass, is also saying that the US may carry out more strikes on Iran’s vital Kharg Island oil export hub “just for fun”. And he is threatening NATO allies that if there’s no response or if it’s a negative response, “it will be very bad for the future of NATO.”

For him and his Gang of Three, American democracy’s decline is not an issue. An acquiescent Congress is their choice. International law, the UN Charter, and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries do not matter. Do the European powers have a say in the conduct of the war? No. As if the war in Iran were nothing, Trump is also speaking more about Cuba these days. Edward Wong’s New York Times analysis titled “Trump’s Foreign Policy: Resurrecting Empire” tells a lot about his global ambitions.[ii]

Russia launched its full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. Ukraine applied for EU membership only four days later. By June 23, 2022, the European Council had granted Ukraine candidate status. For Kyiv, the application was more than a step toward Western integration; it was a strategic move to ensure European support against Russian aggression.

Two years later, on June 25, 2024, the EU formally opened membership negotiations.

Since then, Kyiv has repeatedly urged the bloc to accelerate the process. On the fourth anniversary of the invasion, President Zelensky pushed for an accession date in 2027. However, Commission President von der Leyen, while reaffirming support, noted that setting specific dates remains impossible. Nonetheless, Ukraine’s EU membership remains a question of “when,” not “if,” and will undoubtedly serve as a core element of any future peace agreement.

Since the invasion began, EU countries have provided Ukraine with €194.9 billion in financial, economic, humanitarian, and military support, including €3.7 billion generated from immobilized Russian assets.

Driven by the conflict, European defense spending reached record levels in 2025, with the region allocating nearly $563 billion—a $100 billion increase over the previous year.

Germany remains the primary driver of this growth; under Chancellor Merz, Berlin’s defense funding rose 18% in 2025 to $107 billion. Collectively, Germany has accounted for a quarter of all European defense-spending growth over the last two years. Similarly, Nordic countries have seen their combined spending more than double since 2020.[iii]

Russia is a major nuclear power. However, Russia is the world’s largest country. From its westernmost point in Kaliningrad to its easternmost point at Cape Dezhnev, Russia covers a land of approximately 9,000 kilometers and 11 time zones. Russia’s north-south dimension is approximately 4,000 kilometers.

However, this huge country has a population of only 143 million. Its population density is 8.5 inhabitants per square kilometer. Moscow views the imbalance between its population and land mass as a long-term security concern.

It was no surprise that Ghana’s Foreign Minister Ablakwa visited Kyiv two weeks ago and urged his interlocutors to release two Ghanaian citizens currently held as prisoners of war, Bloomberg reported on February 26. The issue has raised growing concerns in Africa regarding the recruitment of African nationals by Russia to bolster its manpower amid military shortages in its war against Ukraine.[iv]

In August 2025, with more than three years into the war, Gallup reported that Ukrainians’ support for continuing to fight until victory had hit a new low. In Gallup’s most recent poll of Ukraine — conducted in early July — 69% say they favor a negotiated end to the war as soon as possible, compared with 24% who support continuing to fight until victory. This marks a nearly complete reversal from public opinion in 2022, when 73% favored Ukraine fighting until victory and 22% preferred that Ukraine seek a negotiated end as soon as possible.[v]

Russians’ support for the war continues, but the high number of casualties, reportedly over a million, must have strengthened the desire for a negotiated peace.

Since the beginning of the Iran war, the EU has been in disarray. Von der Leyen’s overreach is drawing criticism.

President Macron and Prime Minister Meloni have recently proposed resuming dialogue with Moscow. This, without a doubt, would strengthen President Putin’s position and may not immediately give the EU a seat at President Trump’s peace table. Nevertheless, Europe has few other options, if any. Last Thursday, the imperial Trump administration kindly and generously allowed countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum. Chancellor Merz said that the decision to ease Russian oil sanctions was “wrong”, and he warned of the Kremlin profiting from the Iran war.

It is high time for European leaders to have a second look at the post-Cold War years and then think about the long future. They can start by reading Russian historian Vladislav Zubok’s “Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union”, a remarkable book about the times of Gorbachev and Yeltsin. And once they turn the last page, they can ask themselves if the Ukraine story could have been written differently.[vi]

Tensions in neighboring areas and wars make national unity an imperative. Given the war in Iran, this is also the dictate of the challenges Türkiye currently faces. Last Friday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres received the Atatürk International Peace Award in Ankara. The essence of the prize is rooted in Atatürk’s motto: “Peace at home, peace in the world.” First comes peace at home.

The award underlines Türkiye’s commitment to international peace. The AKP government should now ensure our “peace at home” and thus, national unity. While the war in Iran has brought disaster to the Middle East, for Türkiye, it also presents a unique opportunity for Ankara to draw the necessary lessons and to restore our democracy, our peace at home, and our unity.

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[i] (There is also the group commonly referred to as the “Gang of Eight”,  which includes the Senate Majority and Minority Leaders, the House Speaker, House Minority Leader, and the Chair and Ranking Minority Member of both the Senate and House Intelligence Committees. Secretary Rubio briefed them on the war on March 1.)

[ii] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/27/us/politics/trump-rubio-foreign-policy-empire.html?smid=em-share

[iii] https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2026/02/global-defence-spending-continues-to-grow-amid-geopolitical-uncertainty/

[iv] https://united24media.com/latest-news/ghana-asks-ukraine-to-free-ghanaian-pows-tricked-into-fighting-for-russia-16300

[v] https://news.gallup.com/poll/693203/ukrainian-support-war-effort-collapses.aspx

[vi] https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300268171/collapse/