March 2, 2026

In the 2012 presidential elections, Hassan Rouhani was elected with a very carefully worded program of change. The President and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif appeared to agree that confrontation with the West over the nuclear program was doing more harm than good to Iran. Thus, on July 14, 2015, the P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the UK, the US, and Germany) and Iran reached an agreement on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program would be exclusively peaceful.[i]

On May 8, 2018, President Trump announced that he was terminating the US’s participation in the JCPoA and re-imposing sanctions previously lifted under the deal. With the war in Gaza, the enmity between Iran and Israel reached new heights. In June 2025, the US and Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities. Since then, particularly after the regime’s brutal reaction to protests, a second US-Israeli attack remained high on the two allies’ agenda. Thus, last Saturday saw the launch of “Operation Regime Change 2”, the first being the overthrow of Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddeq in a UK-US-engineered coup in 1953.

Since the 1979 revolution, the people of Iran have lived under oppressive Islamist tyranny. The country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, remained in power for 37 years. The regime miserably failed to deliver peace, stability, and higher living standards to Iranians. Even the most cautious attempts for reform by a few led nowhere. The regime’s reaction to political protests was massacres. Its regional ambitions overstepped the bounds of reason. On the international scene, it had few friends, if any. Consequently, Iran became a vulnerable state.

Saturday’s attacks on Iran, under today’s “no-rules-based international disorder”, would certainly be legitimized by some. The attacks, with few casualties among the attackers, will certainly be presented as a remarkably successful operation by President Trump, who misses no opportunity to emphasize the might of America’s unmatched military power. The killing of Ayatollah Khamenei and a high number of senior figures will only underline the US’s and Israel’s vast intelligence network across the region.

Under the earlier, and far from perfect, rules-based international order, however, the attacks would have constituted a violation of international law, like the abduction of President Maduro of Venezuela. Are regime change projects to continue without the approval of the UN, or the “Board of Peace”? Perhaps. Cuba is already under an oil blockade.

During the Security Council meeting following the US-Israeli strikes, UN Secretary-General Guterres stated:

“Article 2 of the Charter clearly states: ‘All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state.’ International law and international humanitarian law must always be respected. That is why, since this morning, I have condemned the massive military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran. I also condemned the subsequent attacks by Iran, violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. We are witnessing a grave threat to international peace and security. Military action carries the risk of igniting a chain of events that no one can control in the most volatile region of the world…”[ii]

Yesterday, Israel launched a series of “extensive strikes in the heart of Tehran.” No leader in the West could even remotely match Guterres’s level of criticism, except for Spain’s Prime Minister. “We reject the unilateral military action of the United States and Israel, which represents an escalation and contributes to a more uncertain and hostile international order,” Pedro Sánchez wrote on X.

Others, more worried about offending Trump, expressed concern as usual. In an E3 Joint Leaders’ Statement, President Macron, Chancellor Merz, and Prime Minister Starmer condemned Iranian attacks on countries in the region in the strongest terms.

The US and Israel are seeking regime change in Iran. However, during the weeks and days before Saturday’s attack, many questioned the lack of a plan for the “day after.”

Trump called the death of Khamenei the “single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their country.” But the question, “Through whose leadership?” has no easy or quick answers. A regime change that would satisfy the interests of the US and Israel appears difficult and unlikely. Given Trump’s confident, strongly worded statements, a failure to establish a “new regime” or the eruption of internal conflict may, in the short term, become a problem for him.

On Saturday, an article published by The Atlantic, titled “The Worst-Case Outcome Is Complete Chaos”, started with the following: “Killing the supreme leader was one thing. Ousting the regime will be another.”[iii]

While also calling for regime change, Israel’s priority is the weakening of Iran, regardless of the cost to the Iranians. The war in Gaza has amply shown how far Prime Minister Netanyahu can go to achieve his goals.

Beyond a shadow of doubt, support for separatism and the dismemberment of Iran are high on the minds of policymakers both in Israel and the US.

However, the two allies need to bear in mind that prolonged strikes will weaken the hand of regime opponents and enhance the chances of whoever is destined to replace Khamenei.

Looking at the conflict-ridden history of the Middle East countries, I cannot help but ask whether their destiny could have been written differently had others followed Atatürk’s enlightened reforms and embraced secularism. I believe that would have prevented the region’s sectarian conflicts or at least limited the damage inflicted on its people. In earlier centuries, Europe also experienced wars of religion, but eventually put them behind, only to find new reasons for conflict.

Unfortunately, today’s Middle East is not only the world’s number one conflict zone, but also the playground of external powers.

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[i] https://diplomaticopinion.com/2026/01/19/what-if-the-joint-comprehensive-plan-of-action-jcpoa-had-survived/#more-2897

[ii] https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statements/2026-02-28/secretary-generals-remarks-the-security-council-meeting-the-situation-the-middle-east-delivered

[iii] https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/02/iran-war-trump-us-strikes/686197/