October 14, 2025

After two years of war, the implementation of the first phase of President Trump’s 20-point peace plan has sparked great joy in Israel and Gaza, along with “cautious optimism” worldwide because the plan leaves much to be negotiated among the parties. Regardless, with the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners and detainees, yesterday’s Knesset session, and the Gaza summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, where the leaders of Egypt, Qatar, Türkiye, and the US signed “The Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity”, October 13, 2025, will be remembered as a notable date, perhaps the “Trump Day” in Middle East history.[i] Why the Trump Declaration was signed only by the four leaders and not more is a question.

At the Knesset, Prime Minister Netanyahu heaped praise on President Trump. He thanked him for recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, for standing up with Israel at the United Nations, for brokering the Abraham Accords, for withdrawing from the disastrous Iran nuclear deal, supporting Operation Rising Lion, and for the bold decision to launch Operation Midnight Hammer against Iran.[ii]

He notably said, “Thank you for recognizing, in your 2020 Peace Plan, our rights in Judea and Samaria, the ancestral homeland of the Jewish people.”

 As for peace, he said, “Mr. President, you are committed to this peace. I am committed to this piece. And together, Mr. President, we will achieve this piece. We’ve done it before, we’ve done it before in the Abraham Accords, and we’ll do it again.”

During his constantly applauded address to the Knesset, “Israel, with our help, has won all that they can by force of arms. You’ve won. I mean, you’ve won,” Mr. Trump said. “Now it’s time to translate these victories against terrorists on the battlefield into the ultimate prize of peace and prosperity for the entire Middle East. It’s about time you were able to enjoy the fruits of your labor… Bibi you’re going to be remembered for this far more than if you kept this thing going, going, going, kill, kill, kill.”

What is most notable is that, in a remarkable twist in the story, after two years of full US support for Israel, including eight months of his presidency, President Trump, “the greatest friend of Israel in the White House”, has now emerged as the peacemaker king. He says that the war is over, and that resonates not only with the Palestinians but also with the majority of Israelis.

With the ceasefire, some have said displaced Palestinians in southern Gaza began their journey home. Indeed, but the word “home” only means the rubble where their homes stood before the war. During the past two years, 92% of the homes and 90% of the schools were destroyed. None of Gaza’s 36 permanent hospitals is fully operational. Only 1.5% of Gaza’s cropland can be farmed.[iii]

Last week, Dr. Comfort Ero, President & CEO of the International Crisis Group, referring to the shock and sorrow of October 7, 2023, and the Israeli military response that flattened entire cities, killed 67,000 Palestinians, and injured 170,000, said the following in a statement:

“The fact is that the world let this disaster happen. True, the U.S. did insert itself into peacemaking. But despite the massive leverage created by its funding and supplying of Israel’s wars, until these last few days the U.S. consistently shied from wielding sufficient clout to persuade its ally to stop. Europe also had tools it could use, such as suspending arms sales, trade benefits, visas or cooperation programs, and sanctioning Israeli leaders. But despite some creative diplomatic initiatives, such as France’s joint initiative with Saudi Arabia to revive momentum behind the two-state solution, Europe has proved too slow and too divided to project effective influence. Arab and other regional states hold their own influence, both over Israel and over Hamas – such as by jointly halting or reversing Israel’s push for regional integration, or by threatening to expel Hamas’s exiled leaders. But until recent weeks they had also failed to act convincingly together.” [iv]

Thus, the question now is how determined President Trump will prove in the months ahead to implement his peace plan since the resolution of long-term issues, such as the “two-state solution”, will extend far beyond his presidency. 

As one looks into the future, “For how long today’s ‘cautious optimism’ would last?” becomes a question since Mr. Netanyahu has time and again rejected the two-state solution, and Hamas appears more than unlikely to dissolve itself and become history.

Last February, President Trump, a day before he met with Prime Minister Netanyahu in Washington, suggested permanently displacing Palestinians from Gaza, saying that the people there had no alternative but to leave the devastated enclave. When asked back if he had a long-term or short-term solution in mind, he said, “Could be either.”

Last week, “Nobody is going to be forced to leave. It is the opposite…. No, we’re not looking to do that at all,” Mr. Trump said when asked by a reporter whether Palestinians will be forced to leave Gaza under the ceasefire deal.

Israel had occupied Gaza during the Six-Day War in 1967, and the first Israeli settlement was built there in 1970. In 2005, under the “Disengagement Plan”  put forward by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, Israel declared its intention to withdraw from the area and also evacuate four Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

At a summit meeting held in Sharm el-Sheikh on February 8, 2005, the Disengagement Plan was discussed and endorsed by representatives of the Palestinian Authority (PA), Egypt and Jordan. The meeting also witnessed the brokering of a ceasefire between Israel and the PA that effectively brought an end to five years of overt hostilities between the two sides, which had resulted in heavy loss of both Israeli and Palestinian lives.[v]

By September 2005, Israel’s withdrawal from the entire Gaza Strip and the eviction of the four settlements in the West Bank were completed. Hamas came to dominate Gaza.

At present, all attention is focused on Gaza. However, there is also the question of the West Bank because more than half a million Israeli settlers are now living there, their numbers and settlements are growing, shrinking the territory hitherto seen as the core of a Palestinian state. As the growing expressions of concern over settler numbers and violence show, the remaining question is when the West Bank Palestinians will be told to leave the area “voluntarily”.

Last week, in a must-read report titled “Sovereignty in All but Name: Israel’s Quickening Annexation of the West Bank”, the International Crisis Group, referring also to the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ)  Advisory Opinion of 19 July 2024, said that Israel has been constantly expanding its West Bank settlements, moving toward the annexation of significant parts of the West Bank.[vi]

Responding to a request by the UN General Assembly, the International Court of Justice (ICJ)  in its Advisory Opinion had found that between 1967 and 2005, Israel’s settlement policy was carried out in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem. The Court also found that, after the removal of Israel’s settlements from the Gaza Strip in 2005, Israel’s settlement policy continued in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

The following were among the findings of the Court:

• Israel’s construction of settlements is accompanied by specially designed civilian infrastructure in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which integrates the settlements into the territory of Israel.
• The expansion of Israel’s settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem is based on the confiscation or requisitioning of large areas of land.
• Israel’s policy of exploitation of natural resources in the Occupied Palestinian Territory is inconsistent with its obligation to respect the Palestinian people’s right to permanent sovereignty over natural resources.
• The large-scale confiscation of land and the deprivation of access to natural resources divest the local population of their basic means of subsistence, thus inducing their departure.

Thus, the Court considered that “… sustained abuse by Israel of its position as an occupying Power violated the fundamental principles of international law and rendered Israel’s presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory unlawful.”

In light of President Trump’s recognition in his 2020 Peace Plan of Israel’s rights in “Judea and Samaria, the ancestral homeland of the Jewish people”, and the developments reported in the International Crisis Group, one may speculate that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s final goal could be to send the West Bank Palestinians to a “rebuilt Gaza”, persuade Egypt to cede some land beyond the Rafah crossing, and then turn to the proponents of the “two-state solution” and tell them, “There it is, your State of Palestine.”

As for the camaraderie between Presidents Trump and Erdoğan, all one needs to remember is that the former’s favors come at a price.

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[i] https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/10/the-trump-declaration-for-enduring-peace-and-prosperity/?utm_source=wh_social_share_button

[ii] https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-speech-knesset-jerusalem-israel-october-13-2025/

[iii] https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2025/oct/07/the-ruin-of-gaza-how-israel-two-year-assault-has-devastated-the-territory

[iv] https://mailchi.mp/crisisgroup.org/two-years-on-gaza-has-paid-the-price-for-global-inaction?e=33edd2498a

[v] https://www.iemed.org/publication/israels-disengagement-plan-conception-and-implementation/

[vi] https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/israelpalestine/252-sovereignty-all-name-israels-quickening-annexation-west-bank?utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium=email