Aylık arşivler: Nisan 2024

The Incremental Cost of the Wars in Ukraine and Gaza

Bir Cevap Yazın

April 30, 2024

The world remains focused on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the Iran-Israel confrontation. The former defines relations between Russia and the West and unfortunately, there is no path yet for a negotiated solution. The latter two are more of a challenge for the US, with Russia and China watching on the sidelines. How the Gaza conflict would evolve is likely to impact Washington’s standing in the world. In brief, these are not great times for global powers to stand up together against other global threats such as ISIS, a radical group that has proved its outreach on numerous occasions.

Okumaya devam et →

The Question of the Endgame in Ukraine

Bir Cevap Yazın

April 22, 2024

On February 26, 2024, President Macron, after hosting a meeting of 25 European leaders in Paris, said that there was “no consensus” on committing ground troops to the conflict in Ukraine but added, “Nothing should be excluded. We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war.” In early March, during a visit to the Czech Republic, Mr. Macron urged Ukraine’s allies not to be “cowards” in supporting its fight against the Russian invasion. However, Germany, the UK, Spain, Poland, and Czechia immediately ruled out any suggestion that they might commit ground troops to Ukraine. So did Washington.

Okumaya devam et →

Controlled Escalation in the Middle East

Bir Cevap Yazın

April 15, 2024

Since the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, I have held the view that Iran will continue to support its Middle East proxies but not to the brink of war with Israel. I still do.

Although Washington and its Western partners remained silent on the attack and ignored its international law dimension, Israel’s bombing of Iran’s diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1 marked an unprecedented escalation by Israel against Iran. Tehran’s response was to fire more than 300 drones and missiles on Israel. Of these, 99%  were intercepted overnight by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system. The US, UK, and France also helped to intercept the massive barrage of drones Iran fired. Thus, only several missiles reached Israeli territory, causing minor damage to an air base. There were no casualties.

Okumaya devam et →

A New Dawn for Türkiye

Bir Cevap Yazın

April 3, 2024

I concluded a recent post with the following:

“At this time, the mood in the country is one of dejection… The principal battleground in the upcoming municipal elections would be Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir, Türkiye’s three major cities. But across the country, this will be much more than a municipal election. It will be a general election, thus a vote of confidence for the AKP’s 22-year rule… We Turks need to be aware of the extremely high foreign and security policy cost of our democratic decline and sterile domestic policies.” [i]

Okumaya devam et →